Thursday, September 24, 2026
South Korea's Growth Forecast Jumps into the 3% Range on Strong Exports and Consumer Recovery

[Financial News] International organizations are rapidly raising their expectations for South Korea's economic growth. The growth forecast, which stood in the mid-2% range just two months ago, has risen to the mid-3% range. Exports, particularly semiconductors, are recovering more strongly than expected, while consumer spending is also rebounding, prompting assessments that growth will be stronger than initially projected. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) sharply raised its forecast for South Korea's economic growth this year to 3.7% in its "Interim Economic Outlook" released on the 23rd. That is 1.1 percentage points higher than its June forecast of 2.6%. Compared with its March forecast of 1.7%, the figure has jumped by 2.0 percentage points. The OECD typically releases its regular economic outlooks each year in May-June and November-December, while revising its existing forecasts through interim economic outlooks in March and September. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also raised its forecast for South Korea's economic growth this year to 3.2% in its "2026 Asian Economic Outlook," released on the same day. The ADB has lifted its growth forecast twice consecutively, from 1.9% in April to 2.6% in July this year. It also raised its forecast for next year's growth from 2.0% to 2.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points. The backdrop to the successive upward revisions by major international organizations is strong exports led by semiconductors. The OECD analyzed that robust exports and rising production are driving South Korea's growth. The ADB also cited increased exports fueled by expanding global demand for AI semiconductors and improved corporate earnings as key reasons for raising its growth forecast. In fact, South Korea's exports this year have already surpassed last year's annual export value of $709.3 billion. If this trend continues, the country is expected to achieve $1 trillion in annual exports for the first time. A recovery in domestic demand is also supporting growth. Government fiscal support and improving consumer sentiment appear to be boosting private consumption. The Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) rose to 106.6 in September, up 2.1 points from 104.5 the previous month. A CCSI reading above 100 indicates that consumers are optimistic about economic conditions. The index rose for three consecutive months starting in May before falling in August, but rebounded again in September. However, with growth forecasts revised sharply upward, the high inflation rate is considered a challenge. The OECD expects South Korea's inflation rate to reach 3.0% this year, 0.4 percentage points higher than its June forecast. It projects next year's inflation rate at 2.7%. The ADB maintained its forecast for consumer price inflation this year at 2.7% and kept its forecast for next year unchanged at 2.2%. The figures reflect the sharply upgraded growth outlook and higher energy price projections. [email protected] Kim Chan-mi Reporter

South Korea's Growth Forecast Jumps into the 3% Range on Strong Exports and Consumer Recovery