Amazon’s Anthropic investment set for a 13-fold windfall; Google also poised for a 3x gain

[Financial News] If Anthropic goes public, Amazon, its largest outside shareholder, is expected to reap a paper gain of about 13 times its investment.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 10th (local time) that if Anthropic goes public at a valuation of up to $1.4 trillion (about 1,867 trillion won), based on the top of its proposed price range ($70–$78), Amazon’s $18 billion investment (about 24 trillion won) would grow to at least $250 billion (about 333 trillion won).
Google’s $33 billion investment (about 44 trillion won) is also expected to grow more than fourfold, to $140 billion (about 187 trillion won).
The NYT noted that Amazon and Google together own at least a quarter of Anthropic, adding, “The scale and speed of the gains are unprecedented in the history of corporate venture investing.”
The Information, an IT-focused publication, also analyzed Anthropic’s amended securities filing and reported that Amazon’s stake is worth about 14 times its investment.
That calculation is based on a theoretical stake of about 20%, assuming all the convertible bonds held by Amazon were converted into shares. However, under its agreement with Anthropic, Amazon can hold no more than a 12% stake.
Amazon made an early donation to OpenAI, which began as a nonprofit, but later ceded the role of major partner to Microsoft (MS) in 2019.
In September 2023, Amazon made its first investment of $1.25 billion in Anthropic, which had been dogged by its reputation as an “AI laggard” after ChatGPT emerged, securing a position as a major cloud provider.
Google also made its first investment that same year, as Anthropic pledged to use Google’s own AI chips.
The gains these Big Tech companies are making go beyond paper profits on their equity stakes.
Gil Luria, an analyst at investment bank D.A. Davidson, estimated that at least $1 trillion (about 1,334 trillion won) of each of Amazon’s and Google’s market capitalization came from providing cloud services to Anthropic and selling its AI to customers.
Salesforce, the world’s largest customer relationship management (CRM) software company, is also seen as a beneficiary after turning to Anthropic when its path to investing in OpenAI was blocked.
Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said on a podcast in September that the company invested in Anthropic as a “Plan B” because of the relationship between MS and OpenAI, adding, “We’ll make not several billion dollars, but perhaps tens of billions.”
Meanwhile, Google plans to invest $10 billion (about 13.3 trillion won) in a private placement being conducted alongside this IPO offering. 

[email protected] Lee Seok-woo, International Affairs Correspondent Reporter