“₩2.42 million → ₩1.27 million”: Doosan’s target price ‘nearly halved,’ but outlook remains solid... Further downside for Alteogen excessive despite drug-price negotiation concerns [Stocktopia]

[Financial News] A roundup of reports from major securities firms on the morning of November 10.
Analysts say that although Doosan’s share price plunged amid concerns over slower investment in artificial intelligence (AI), industry conditions remain solid, supported by demand for high-value-added electronic materials.
Korean Air is expected to see synergies from its merger with Asiana Airlines ramp up from next year, while strong passenger and cargo fares continue. Alteogen Inc. was assessed to have limited exposure to the impact of U.S. drug-price negotiations on the subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda, making further share-price declines excessive.
◆ Doosan (000150)― Hana Securities / Analyst Minkyung Kim
- Target price: ₩1,270,000 (down 47.5%; previously ₩2,420,000) | Previous closing price: ₩611,000
- Rating: Buy (maintained)
Hana Securities lowered its target price for Doosan to ₩1,270,000 but maintained its Buy rating. The cut reflects a lower valuation for Doosan, which is calculated using the share prices of its copper-clad laminate (CCL) competitors, after their shares fell.
Analyst Minkyung Kim said Doosan’s share price had recently corrected sharply amid combined concerns over slower AI investment and a shrinking share of business at customer companies. Even so, Kim said, “Separate from the steep share-price decline, industry conditions remain solid, underpinned by demand for high-value-added CCL.”
Operating profit in the electronics business division rose 127% year on year to ₩235.3 billion in the third quarter. Kim forecast that fourth-quarter revenue would likely exceed the company’s guidance, as the utilization rate at its new plant in Changshu, China, is rising rapidly. Doosan is expanding capacity to around 2.7 times its current level by the end of 2029 to address an expected CCL supply shortage over the next two to three years.
Kim judged that “the recent share-price correction has left the company’s medium- to long-term growth potential entirely unreflected.” The analysis is that while the share price has fallen sharply, industry conditions and growth prospects have not changed.※ Copper-clad laminate (CCL)A sheet made by coating an insulating layer with a thin film of copper, it is a key material in printed circuit boards (PCBs), on which electronic circuits are etched. AI accelerators and network equipment use high-value-added products with low signal loss, making CCL a key factor in the performance of Doosan’s electronics business division.
◆ Korean Air (003490)― NH Investment & Securities / Analyst Jeong Yeon-seung
- Target price: ₩41,000 (up 20.6%; previously ₩34,000) | Previous closing price: ₩29,100
- Rating: Buy (maintained)
NH Investment & Securities raised its target price for Korean Air to ₩41,000, saying synergies from its merger with Asiana Airlines would begin to ramp up next year. The move reflects increases of 34% and 11%, respectively, in its operating profit estimates for this year and next, on the back of strong passenger and cargo fares and fuel costs stabilizing at lower levels.
Analyst Jeong Yeon-seung said passenger demand was “solid, thanks to strong inbound traffic and robust routes to the Americas.” In other words, demand from foreign visitors to Korea and routes to the Americas are supporting passenger performance. Jeong also forecast that high fuel costs, which have so far constrained profit growth, would gradually stabilize at lower levels with a time lag.
Jeong forecast that 2027 would mark the first year of synergy benefits. However, revenue synergies are expected to build gradually over the next two to three years.
Cost savings are expected to begin immediately after the merger. Jeong said that “even a 10% reduction in the combined ₩1.2 trillion in maintenance costs at Korean Air and Asiana Airlines could deliver savings of about ₩120 billion.” A new engine maintenance facility is set to ramp up operations in the second half of next year, and handling maintenance in-house will reduce costs incurred through outsourcing, Jeong explained.
◆ Alteogen Inc. (196170)― Shinhan Investment & Securities / Analyst Eom Min-yong
- Target price: ₩430,000 (down 17.3%; previously ₩520,000) | Previous closing price: ₩168,400
- Rating: Buy (maintained) | Top pick in the sector (maintained)
Shinhan Investment & Securities lowered its target price for Alteogen Inc. to ₩430,000 but maintained its Buy rating and its status as the sector’s top pick. The valuation assumptions were adjusted to narrow the gap with the share price, while earnings estimates were left unchanged.
On the 5th, the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) included subcutaneous (SC) formulations in the final rule for 2029 drug-price negotiations. Analyst Eom Min-yong said the issue “has been digested since the draft proposal on drug-price negotiations for SC formulations was announced in May last year, making further declines excessive.”
This means the negative news has already been priced into the share price. Eom stressed that “the key point is that the impact of drug-price cuts on KEYTRUDA QLEX’s net sales is less than 10%.” Even assuming a 60% drug-price cut and a 40% conversion rate to the SC formulation, Eom estimated that Alteogen Inc.’s KEYTRUDA QLEX royalty revenue in 2029 would decline by only around 8%.
The U.S. patent issue is also expected to be resolved soon. Of competitor Halozyme’s 14 U.S. patents for MDASE, its technology for converting drugs to subcutaneous formulations, 11 have been invalidated. Eom expects the remaining three to also be invalidated on the 19th (local time).※ Keytruda (generic name: pembrolizumab)An immuno-oncology drug sold by U.S.-based Merck & Co., Inc. (MSD), it is the world’s best-selling medicine. With its U.S. compound patent set to expire in December 2028, MSD is pursuing a switch to KEYTRUDA QLEX, the subcutaneous formulation, which uses Alteogen Inc.’s technology.※ HalozymeA U.S. drug-delivery technology company with technology for converting intravenous formulations to subcutaneous ones, Halozyme is a competitor of Alteogen Inc. It is engaged in a patent dispute with MSD, claiming that KEYTRUDA QLEX infringes its MDASE patents.※ Subcutaneous injection (SC)This method administers a drug formulation into the tissue beneath the skin rather than into a blood vessel, and takes less time than intravenous (IV) injection. Because it is more convenient for patients, global pharmaceutical companies are increasingly converting existing IV medicines to subcutaneous formulations.

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