Despite NVIDIA board probe, prediction markets see little chance Jensen Huang will step down

【Financial News, New York—Correspondent Lee Byung-chul】 NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, who admitted to having an extramarital relationship with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy, is facing a board investigation, but U.S. prediction markets put the odds of his stepping down in the short term low. NVIDIA shares plunged more than 5% in the wake of the scandal, but the outlook is that there is only a 17% chance Huang will leave his post by next year.
According to CNBC on the 9th (local time), investors on the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi put the odds of Huang stepping down by 2027 at 17%. The likelihood rose to 30% for a departure by 2028 and 35% by 2029. The odds of his stepping down by 2031, however, reached 75%.
On another prediction market, Polymarket, the chance that Huang would resign voluntarily or be forced out by the end of March 2027 was just 25%. Investors appear to believe that, despite NVIDIA’s board launching a formal investigation, a change in leadership is unlikely anytime soon.
Huang previously admitted on the 8th to having an extramarital relationship with a woman suspected of being a spy for a Chinese intelligence agency. According to The New York Times (NYT), U.S. intelligence agencies believe the woman is a spy working for China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS).
NVIDIA’s board launched an independent investigation after reports emerged that Huang had become the target of an operation by a foreign intelligence agency. The move came amid concerns that the matter could go beyond a private-life issue and become a national security risk involving the CEO of a company at the forefront of the U.S. advanced AI semiconductor industry.
The scandal also dealt a direct blow to NVIDIA’s share price. That day, the company’s shares fell more than 5% after news of the matter emerged.
Prediction-market investors, however, see a limited chance that the scandal will lead to Huang’s immediate departure. Kalshi uses a Bloomberg report as its basis for determining whether he steps down, while Polymarket uses an official announcement from NVIDIA or Huang.



[email protected] Correspondent Lee Byung-chul Reporter