Trump lost, but “Trumpism” remains... South Korea’s security and trade calculations grow more complicated

[Financial News] The Democrats took control of both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, but analysts expect U.S. economic and security pressure on South Korea to continue. One analysis is that President Donald Trump’s negotiating approach—using tariffs to bring in large-scale foreign investment—could also prove an effective tool for the Democrats. Concerns about weaker semiconductor demand due to Democratic-led regulation of AI data centers, combined with security issues such as the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) and the construction of nuclear-powered submarines, have further complicated South Korea’s calculations.
At an emergency roundtable on the U.S. midterm elections hosted by the NEAR Foundation on the 6th, foreign affairs, security and economic experts predicted that America First policies—including attracting investment through tariffs and containing China—would continue despite the Democrats’ control of Congress. They said that even if Trump’s political influence wanes, it would be difficult for the Democrats to reverse policies that have delivered tangible benefits to the United States.
Kim Byeong-yeon, a professor in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University, said the Biden administration attracted foreign investment by offering incentives such as subsidies, while the Trump administration drew investment even as it imposed tariffs. Tariff revenue in 2025 accounted for about 4% of U.S. federal government revenue. “Having managed to achieve both goals—raising tax revenue and attracting investment—the Democrats will find it difficult to give that up,” Kim predicted. Song Min-soon, a former minister of foreign affairs and trade, also predicted that Trump-style pressure diplomacy would not disappear easily. “In the past, the United States hit its opponents with gloves on, whereas Trump hit them with his bare fists,” Song said, adding, “Once you try your bare fists, you find they can be pretty effective.” Given South Korea’s pledge of large-scale investment in the United States and other factors, he said, the Democrats would also find it hard to reverse the results already achieved.
Lee Jae-min, a professor at Seoul National University School of Law, said the Trump administration’s tariff policy had in fact become more sophisticated as it encountered legal constraints. In February, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful, the United States retained tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act on national security grounds and moved to expand investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act targeting unfair trade practices. Lee predicted that selective tariffs aimed at specific countries and products could continue even after the Democrats take power.
Moves by the U.S. Democratic Party to regulate AI data centers have emerged as a new variable for South Korea’s semiconductor industry. Democratic governors-elect such as Gina Hinojosa in Texas and Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia have pledged to halt new data-center construction, prompting concerns about weaker demand for semiconductors from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. However, Kim Byeong-yeon, a professor in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University, predicted that, given the U.S.-China competition for technological supremacy, the United States would find it difficult to maintain for long regulations that weaken its own AI competitiveness.
The possibility of U.S. trade pressure over the semiconductor supply chain was also raised. Chung Duck-koo, chairman of the NEAR Foundation, expressed concern that a perception could spread that “South Korea and Taiwan supply key semiconductors to U.S. AI companies while remaining reluctant to manufacture locally in the United States.” He cited the 1986 agreement in which the United States pressed Japan to open its semiconductor market and prevent dumping, followed the next year by 100% retaliatory tariffs on some Japanese products, and warned that South Korea’s semiconductor industry could face similar trade pressure.
In the security sphere, analysts said the Democrats’ control of Congress could put the brakes on the Lee Jae Myung administration’s plan for an early transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON). Choi Byung-hyuk, former deputy commander of the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command, said the United States would inevitably be cautious about transferring OPCON to the South Korean military as North Korea’s nuclear capabilities advance. “It won’t be very easy for the current administration to set a specific deadline,” he predicted. He also noted that Congress is required to receive reports every 90 days on progress toward the OPCON transfer, and said Democratic control could strengthen oversight and budgetary controls. In addition, building nuclear-powered submarines, enriching uranium and reprocessing spent nuclear fuel could conflict with the Democrats’ nonproliferation stance.
Divisions among U.S. interests and the future of senior defense officials are also factors. Song Min-soon, a former minister of foreign affairs and trade, said, “Even within the United States, the positions of the White House, the Department of Defense, the U.S. Army and U.S. Forces Korea differ somewhat,” and pointed out that South Korean forces’ exercise of operational control could impose an additional burden on U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. Shin Kak-soo, a former ambassador to Japan, also mentioned calls to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, saying, “We’ll also have to watch how things might change as a result of the Democrats’ landslide victory.” In fact, shortly after the midterm defeat, President Trump decided to replace White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles with hard-liner Stephen Miller. With the possibility of Hegseth’s removal as U.S. defense secretary also being discussed, analysts say uncertainty in South Korea-U.S. security negotiations could grow.
By contrast, analysts said Trump may have greater incentive to pursue a summit with North Korea to make up for his domestic political weakness. “President Trump’s desire to meet Kim Jong Un will probably have grown,” Kim said, describing North Korea as the diplomatic card Trump could play with the least difficulty. However, Song Min-soon and Cho Hyun-dong, a former ambassador to the United States, believed a meeting would be difficult because North Korea would demand recognition as a nuclear-weapon state and sanctions relief. Kim warned that if the North Korean nuclear issue were left off the agenda, there would be a risk that Trump would effectively acquiesce in North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons.
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