Prediction market Kalshi: Odds of Anthropic announcing an IPO this month fall from 90% to 57%

[Financial News]  

Expectations are growing that Anthropic, the AI startup expected to stage the largest IPO ever, will delay its IPO announcement.
Anthropic recently disclosed a preliminary prospectus (S-1), making an IPO on the Nasdaq this month look likely. But the outlook for its listing has darkened after Democrats, who campaigned on AI regulation, scored a landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections. In particular, the New York stock market plunged on the 5th (local time) amid a collapse in the AI trade, sharply dampening investor sentiment and prompting speculation that the IPO could be delayed.
According to CNBC on the 6th, traders on prediction market Kalshi have started betting in recent days on the possibility of a delay to Anthropic’s IPO.
The odds that Anthropic will announce an IPO this month were above 85% just a week ago, but have now plunged to 57%. The odds of an IPO announcement by the end of this year have also dropped sharply, from 90% to 68% over the same period. The contract concerns when Anthropic will officially announce its IPO and whether the media will confirm the announcement.
Anthropic previously submitted a confidential report to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June to proceed with the IPO process.
The Democrats’ “blue wave” prompted Kalshi traders to reassess Anthropic’s IPO prospects. With Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress, concerns have grown that data center construction will slow and the AI theme will struggle. If interest wanes, Anthropic’s IPO could also fail to attract strong demand.
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic Texas governor-elect who ended Governor Greg Abbott’s fourth consecutive term, has pledged to tighten regulations on data center construction. The governor-elect told CNN on the 5th, “We will make laws to protect the people of Texas,” adding, “Until these safeguards are in place, work related to data centers needs to be halted.”
AI stocks rebounded on the 6th thanks to bargain hunting, but it remains unclear whether the gains will last.
[email protected] Song Kyung-jae Reporter