The strongest El Niño on record is coming... KMA: “Warmer than average this winter, with more precipitation likely”

[Financial News]  This winter is expected to be warmer than average, with above-average precipitation in the form of rain or snow. That’s because El Niño, a phenomenon in which waters in the equatorial Pacific warm, is expected to develop to its strongest level since 1950. However, even if the average winter temperature is high, periods of intense cold may occur, so preparations for cold waves are necessary.
The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) said on the 6th that El Niño, which began in May this year, has developed to a strong level and is expected to peak in December, becoming the strongest on record.
El Niño is a phenomenon in which the waters of the Pacific near the equator become warmer than average. When the trade winds that usually blow from east to west weaken, warm water that had accumulated in the western Pacific expands eastward. This changes atmospheric circulation and affects temperatures and precipitation in many parts of the world, including Korea.
The KMA considers El Niño to have occurred when the three-month average sea-surface temperature in the tropical Pacific El Niño monitoring region remains at least 0.5°C above average for five months or longer. This year, the threshold has been met since May.
This year’s El Niño is particularly unusual in its rate of development and strength. In October, the monitoring region’s monthly average sea-surface temperature was 2.6°C above average. The three-month moving-average anomaly for August to October also reached 2.4°C. Both figures were the highest for the corresponding periods since 1950, the earliest year for which observational data can be compared.
These levels are higher than those recorded during the strong El Niño events of 1997 and 2015. The sea-surface temperature anomaly in October 1997 was 2.4°C, and in 2015 it was 2.3°C. This year’s reading was higher by 0.2°C and 0.3°C, respectively.
The KMA expects El Niño to reach its greatest strength in December as current high sea-surface temperatures persist.

The strong El Niño is also expected to affect winter weather on the Korean Peninsula. As El Niño develops, convective activity that produces rain clouds over the tropical western Pacific tends to decrease, while anticyclonic circulation tends to strengthen east of Korea. This makes it easier for warm, moist air to flow onto the Korean Peninsula.
According to the KMA’s three-month outlook, released on the 23rd of last month, temperatures in November and December this year are expected to be above average, with precipitation generally higher as well.
In January next year, temperatures are also expected to be generally above average, while precipitation is forecast to be near average. However, cold air could move in temporarily, potentially causing temperatures to drop sharply.
An expected high average temperature this winter does not mean that severe cold will disappear.
Winter weather in Korea is influenced not only by El Niño but also by various climate factors, including Arctic sea ice, snow cover across the Eurasian continent, and sea-surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic oceans. These factors can interact in complex ways, causing temperatures and precipitation to differ from the original forecast.
KMA Administrator Lee Mi-seon said, “The strong El Niño is expected to make temperatures higher than average and precipitation generally greater than average this winter. But as various climate factors interact, we need to prepare for abrupt weather changes, including cold waves.”

[email protected] Lee Bomi Reporter