Global reactions to the “blue tsunami” split: Japan and Europe wary, Canada cheers

【Financial News, Seoul and Tokyo | Reporter Hong Chae-wan and Correspondent Seo Hye-jin】With Republicans suffering a crushing defeat in the U.S. midterm elections, countries are reassessing their positions in different ways. Japan is wary of the possibility that President Donald Trump could strike deals with China and Russia while leaving Japan out, while Europe fears a return of tariff tensions. In Latin America, concerns about reduced U.S. support and hopes for improved trade negotiations vary according to the political leanings of those in power, while Canada, which had been embroiled in a tariff war, welcomed the result as its own victory.
■ China and Russia: U.S. congressional checks emerge as a factor
Japanese media reported on the 5th that the Japanese government fears President Trump could rush to secure diplomatic wins and strike deals with North Korea, China and Russia while excluding Japan, now that congressional checks on him have grown stronger. Tokyo is also wary of pressure to increase its defense spending and its share of the cost of stationing U.S. forces in Japan, and is moving quickly to communicate with Washington. In this connection, The Asahi Shimbun, citing an official at the prime minister’s office, reported the official as asking, “If Congress becomes unable to act, might he unleash his energy in other areas, such as diplomacy and security?”
In China, some offered the optimistic view that, given President Trump’s weakened position and concerns about high inflation, there would be no further increase in tariffs on China. At the same time, others said China would find it difficult to steer the situation in a better direction than it is now, since both Republicans and Democrats agree on maintaining export controls on China involving semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) and other areas.
Russia, too, saw concerns that the “diesel deal” President Trump made with President Vladimir Putin could run into trouble. Karin von Hippel, former director of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), predicted, “The new Congress, controlled by Democrats, will try to block the diesel trade.” In fact, shortly before the midterm elections, several Democrats sent an urgent letter to operators of ports and oil terminals in the state, urging them to “completely refuse entry to vessels carrying Russian diesel.” At the time, Democrats warned that “imports of Russian diesel could clearly violate federal law” and that “companies allowing them will face severe civil and criminal penalties.”
■ Canada: “Jumping for joy”
In Europe, assessments continue to emerge that President Trump could turn his anger toward the continent. A European Union (EU) diplomat told Euronews, “President Trump could become a ‘mad dog’ rather than a ‘lame duck.’ The mood right now is quite realistic, and no one expects the current problems to disappear.”
There are reportedly deep concerns that trade tensions between the United States and Europe, which had recently quieted down, will flare up again. Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade, said a “‘lame duck’ could turn into an ‘angry duck’” and predicted, “President Trump has neither stability nor predictability. He could pressure Europe by pushing through tariffs on European pharmaceuticals and machinery.”
Across Latin American countries, reactions are mixed depending on the political leanings of those in power.
Right-wing governments—including Argentina, which received support from the Trump administration; Venezuela, which had been in a thaw with the Trump administration since former President Nicolás Maduro was ousted; Peru; Colombia; Chile; and Bolivia—are watching the political landscape unfold with concern. Since President Trump holds broad independent powers in foreign affairs and security, U.S. policy toward Latin America is unlikely to be reversed overnight. But these governments share concerns that the guardrails around U.S. financial support could be shaken.
By contrast, left-wing governments such as Brazil and Mexico, which had been at odds with the United States, are outwardly cautious but quietly pleased.
Cheers were also heard in Canada, which has been waging a trade war with the Trump administration. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he was “jumping up and down with joy” and even celebrated the crushing midterm defeat for Trump’s side as “a victory for Canada.” A leading opponent of President Trump’s tariff policies targeting Ontario’s auto and steel industries, Ford said, “I’ll instruct Ontario ministers to go down to Washington and meet with members of the House and Senate.”
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