“Trump Could Become a ‘Mad Dog’” vs. “Canada’s Victory”: World Divided by Trump’s Crushing Defeat [U.S. Midterm Elections]

[Financial News] After Republicans suffered a crushing defeat in the U.S. midterm elections, countries are recalculating their positions in different ways. Japan was wary of the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump might strike deals with China and Russia while leaving Japan out, while Europe feared a renewed tariff dispute. In Latin America, concerns about reduced U.S. support and hopes for improved trade negotiations varied according to the political leanings of those in power, while Canada, which had been engaged in a trade war, welcomed the result as a victory for itself.
According to Japanese media reports on the 5th, the Japanese government fears that, as congressional checks grow stronger, President Trump may rush to secure diplomatic achievements and strike deals with North Korea, China and Russia while leaving Japan out. Japan is also wary of pressure to increase its defense spending and its share of the costs of stationing U.S. forces in Japan, and is moving quickly to communicate with Washington. In this regard, The Asahi Shimbun, citing an official at the prime minister’s office, reported the official as asking, “If Congress becomes unable to act, might he unleash his energy in other areas, such as diplomacy and security?”
However, some have pointed out that China and Russia may not have much to celebrate, in line with Japan’s concerns.
As for China, some offered the optimistic view that, given President Trump’s weakened position and concerns about high prices, there would be no further increase in tariffs on China. At the same time, however, observers noted that both Republicans and Democrats have reached bipartisan agreement on maintaining export controls on China in areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI), making it difficult for China to steer the situation in a more favorable direction than it is now.
In Russia, too, concerns emerged that the “diesel deal” President Trump struck with President Vladimir Putin could run into trouble. In this regard, Karin von Hippel, former director of the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), predicted, “The new Congress, controlled by Democrats, will try to block the diesel trade.” In fact, shortly before the midterm elections, several Democrats sent urgent letters to port and oil terminal operators in the state, urging them to “categorically refuse entry to ships carrying Russian diesel.” At the time, Democrats warned that “imports of Russian diesel could clearly violate federal law” and that “companies that allow this will face severe civil and criminal penalties.”
In Europe, assessments continue to suggest that President Trump could direct his anger at Europe. A European Union (EU) diplomat told Euronews, “President Trump could become a ‘mad dog’ rather than a ‘lame duck.’ The mood right now is quite realistic, and no one expects the current problems to disappear.”
The biggest concern, it is understood, is that trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe—which had recently subsided—will flare up again. Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, said a “‘lame duck’ could turn into an ‘angry duck’” and predicted, “President Trump has neither stability nor predictability. He could pressure Europe by pushing ahead with tariffs on European pharmaceuticals and machinery.”
In Latin American countries, reactions are mixed depending on the political leanings of those in power.
Right-wing governments—including Argentina, which received support from the Trump administration; Venezuela, which was in a thaw with the Trump administration after the ouster of former President Nicolás Maduro Moros; Peru; Colombia; Chile; and Bolivia—are watching the political landscape unfold with concern. Since President Trump holds substantial powers of his own in foreign and security policy, U.S. policy toward Latin America is unlikely to be reversed overnight. But these governments share the concern that the guardrails around U.S. financial assistance could weaken.
By contrast, left-wing governments such as Brazil and Mexico, which had been at odds with the United States, appear outwardly cautious but quietly pleased. In Mexico in particular, cautious hopes are emerging that more favorable conditions could take shape in future trade and negotiations with the U.S. The idea is that Mexico’s supply of competitively priced goods could help stabilize prices in the United States, a key issue in the midterm elections.
Beyond Latin America, cheers were heard in Canada, which had been waging a trade war with the Trump administration. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he “jumped up and down with joy,” and celebrated President Trump’s crushing election defeat as “a victory for Canada.” Ford, who had been at the forefront of opposition to Trump’s tariffs targeting Ontario’s auto and steel industries, said, “I will direct Ontario’s ministers to go down to Washington and meet with members of the House and Senate.”
[email protected] Hong Chae-wan Reporter