Trump’s coalition fractures as Hispanic, Black and young voters defect [U.S. Midterm Elections]

【Financial News, New York — Lee Byung-cheol, correspondent】 The voting preferences of voters who returned U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 shifted dramatically in just two years. Hispanic, Black and young voters, who played a decisive role in President Trump’s victory, swung back to the Democratic Party, while defections also emerged among white working-class voters without college degrees, a key base of Republican support.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and The New York Times (NYT) on the 4th (local time) cited fractures in the voter coalition that had led to President Trump’s 2024 victory as a major factor enabling Democrats to retake both the House and the Senate in this midterm election. According to the two outlets’ analyses, voting preferences shifted toward Democrats among major voter groups across race, age, gender and education level.
The biggest change was among Hispanic voters. According to NYT, the gap in support between Democrats and Republicans among Hispanic voters shifted 28 percentage points in Democrats’ favor compared with the 2024 presidential election. The gap among Hispanic men under 30 shifted a striking 47 percentage points toward Democrats. Hispanic voters without college degrees also shifted 33 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
WSJ’s analysis found the same trend. Hispanic women supported Democratic candidates by 36 percentage points more than Republican candidates in this House election. Compared with the 21-point lead held by the Democratic candidate in the 2024 presidential election, the gap widened by 15 points.
The shift in Hispanic voters’ preferences was particularly pronounced in Texas, a traditional Republican stronghold. Hispanics, who make up about 25% of Texas voters, supported President Trump by a 1-percentage-point margin in the 2024 presidential election. But in this Senate election, Democratic candidate James Talarico led Republican candidate Ken Paxton by 34 percentage points among Hispanic voters. The gap in support between the two parties had swung 35 percentage points in just two years.
Black voters also swung back to Democrats. According to NYT, the gap in support between the two parties among Black voters shifted 9 percentage points in Democrats’ favor compared with 2024. The shift was 16 points among Black men and 5 points among Black women. Black men under 45 shifted a full 25 points toward Democrats. In the 2024 presidential election, this group had moved 26 points in Republicans’ favor. In effect, the support President Trump had secured from Black men had substantially weakened in just two years.
The shift in voting preferences toward Democrats was also clear among young voters. According to NYT’s analysis, the gap in support between the two parties among voters under 30 shifted 32 percentage points in Democrats’ favor—the largest change of any age group. WSJ likewise found that the share of voters aged 18 to 29 supporting Democrats was 20 percentage points higher than in 2024.
The changes among white voters are also notable. According to WSJ, Democratic candidates’ lead among white voters with college degrees came close to 20 percentage points. White voters without college degrees, a key Republican support base, still supported Republicans more, but the gap between the two parties narrowed sharply.
Ohio is a prime example. White voters without college degrees supported President Trump by a 35-point margin in the 2024 presidential election, but in this Senate election the Republican candidate’s lead narrowed to 17 points. The Republican advantage had shrunk by 18 percentage points in two years.
NYT’s analysis also found that the gap in support between the two parties among white voters without college degrees shifted 14 percentage points in Democrats’ favor nationwide. The shift was 16 points each in Iowa and Ohio, and 12 points in Kansas.
WSJ analyzed that President Trump’s support base had weakened amid growing dissatisfaction with high prices and the cost of living, compounded by backlash over the war in Iran and immigration enforcement policies.
However, a shift in voting preferences toward Democrats does not mean that Democrats received more votes than Republicans in every group. In some groups, such as white voters without college degrees, Republicans retained their advantage, although the gap narrowed. NYT’s analysis consists of preliminary estimates based on House election results, while the survey cited by WSJ was a voter survey conducted by SSRS on behalf of seven major news organizations.

[email protected] Correspondent Lee Byung-cheol Reporter