“47-percentage-point swing among young Hispanic men”... Voters upend Republican strongholds [U.S. midterm elections]

【Financial News, New York = Correspondent Lee Byung-chul】  Young voters and Hispanic voters who helped secure U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory swung back toward the Democrats in just two years. The voting preferences of Hispanic men under 30 shifted a remarkable 47 percentage points toward the Democrats. As even white working-class voters without college degrees—a core Republican support base—shifted toward the Democrats, the midterm elections saw broad changes in voting preferences across race, age, gender and education levels.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 4th (local time) that its analysis of its own voter-trend data, “Times Voter Trends,” found that voting had shifted toward the Democrats among every major demographic group in the United States. Voters who had moved toward the Republicans in the 2024 presidential election shifted in the opposite direction this time.
The most dramatic change was among young voters. The shift in the margin of support toward the Democrats among voters under 30 was 32 percentage points, the largest of any age group. Men under 30 shifted by as much as 38 percentage points. In the 2024 presidential election, this group had shifted 23 percentage points toward the Republicans, helping Trump win.
The shift among young white voters was also striking. They had supported former President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, but swung back to the Republicans in 2024, giving Trump a narrow edge. In this election, however, they shifted back toward the Democrats, showing even stronger support for them than in 2020.
The shift among Hispanic voters was even more notable. The margin of support among Hispanic voters overall shifted 28 percentage points toward the Democrats, the largest change among all racial and ethnic groups. Hispanic men under 30 shifted by as much as 47 percentage points. Hispanic voters without college degrees also shifted 33 percentage points, while the shift among college-educated Hispanic voters was 17 percentage points.
These changes shook even the Republican Party’s traditional strongholds. In Texas, Hispanic voters—who make up about a quarter of all registered voters—shifted 32 percentage points toward the Democrats. As a result, Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa defeated three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott to become Texas’s first Hispanic governor. Democratic candidate James Talarico also defeated Republican candidate Ken Paxton and was elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas as a Democrat for the first time in nearly 30 years.
In Florida, too, Hispanic voters shifted 20 percentage points toward the Democrats. This made the Senate and gubernatorial races tighter than expected, but did not lead to a Democratic victory.
Cracks also appeared among white voters without college degrees, long considered part of President Trump’s core support base. Their voting preferences shifted 14 percentage points toward the Democrats nationwide, a larger change than among college-educated white voters.
The shift was especially pronounced in states where the Democrats recaptured key Senate seats. Among white voters without college degrees, the shift toward the Democrats was 16 percentage points each in Iowa and Ohio, 12 in Kansas and 7 in Maine. White working-class voters make up a substantial share of the electorate in these states, making the weakening of the Republicans’ traditional support base particularly significant.
Black voters also swung back toward the Democrats. Voting preferences among Black voters overall shifted 9 percentage points toward the Democrats. The shift was 16 percentage points among Black men and 5 among Black women.
The shift among Black men under 45 reached 25 percentage points. In the 2024 presidential election, this group had shifted 26 percentage points toward Trump. In just two years, the shift from then had been almost reversed in the opposite direction.
Democratic support also expanded across every age group. The shift toward the Democrats was largest among voters under 30, at 32 percentage points, followed by 24 among those aged 30–44, 13 among those aged 45–64, and 6 among those 65 and older. The Democrats expanded their support base even among voters aged 45 and over, a group in which the Republicans had held an advantage in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.
The NYT said its analysis showed how quickly the voter coalition that enabled President Trump’s 2024 victory could change. As young men and Hispanic voters, as well as the white working class, shifted toward the Democrats, significant changes to the Republicans’ existing election strategy are likely to be unavoidable. However, this is preliminary data estimating shifts in voting preferences by race, age, education level and gender, based on results from elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. 




[email protected] Correspondent Lee Byung-chul Reporter