US Political Polarization Formula Shattered as Hispanic and Young Voters Defect, GOP Strongholds Crumble [US Midterm Elections]

[Financial News, New York—Correspondent Lee Byeong-cheol] The Democratic Party reclaimed its majority in the U.S. Senate in the midterm elections held on the 3rd (local time), sweeping even traditional Republican strongholds. Five states that had given President Donald Trump victories by margins of more than 10 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election chose Democrats this time. Analysts say that, amid growing voter frustration over high prices and the cost of living, the core coalition that helped Trump return to the White House has faltered in just two years.
Democrats reclaimed at least seven Senate seats from Republicans in this election. They won in seven states: Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas.
Democratic victories in Texas, Kansas and South Carolina—key pillars of Republican support—are seen as the election’s biggest upsets. Texas is the most populous conservative-leaning state in the United States and had been a symbolic political stronghold for Republicans. Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time in nearly 100 years.
Most of the seats reclaimed by Democrats were in areas where Democratic candidates had not won since 2008, when former President Barack Obama was elected. The results are seen as having fundamentally shaken up the existing U.S. political landscape.
What stands out most about this election is not only the scale of the Republican defeat but also the shift in voter preferences. As political polarization intensified, very few voters changed their party allegiance in recent U.S. elections. But this midterm election upended that conventional wisdom.
According to an analysis by The New York Times (NYT), the vote margin shifted 26 percentage points in Democrats’ favor in Texas compared with the 2024 presidential election. The shift was 23 points in North Carolina, 22 in South Carolina and 21 in Kansas. Iowa and Ohio also saw shifts of 17 and 16 percentage points, respectively.
In particular, the core support base that helped President Trump return to power in 2024 is believed to have defected in large numbers.
According to NYT’s analysis of voter preferences, Hispanic voters, voters under 30 and white working-class voters without college degrees shifted substantially toward Democrats in the seven states the party reclaimed.
These were voter groups that played an important role in President Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. At the time, Trump expanded his support among working-class and Hispanic voters in addition to the traditional Republican base, successfully returning to the White House.
Their support is believed to have weakened in this election as the burden of living costs and dissatisfaction with President Trump grew.
Maine, however, differs somewhat from other areas. It has traditionally leaned strongly Democratic, and President Trump also lost there by 7 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Republican Senator Susan Collins, who lost in the state, had been the only Republican member of Congress from New England. Her defeat is seen as voters passing judgment on her relationship with President Trump, rather than reflecting a new shift in voter sentiment toward Democrats.


[email protected] Correspondent Lee Byeong-cheol Reporter