Bets on Democrats taking control of both chambers surge ... House at 98%, Senate briefly at 88%

[Financial News] As vote counting began in the U.S. midterm elections, bets reflecting the possibility of Democrats taking control of both the House and Senate surged on prediction markets. The probability of Democrats taking the House rose to 98%, while the probability of taking the Senate also reached 88% at one point.
According to Reuters on the 3rd (local time), data compiled by prediction-market analytics firm BetInt showed that, as of 7 p.m. Eastern Time that day, the probability of Democrats taking the House was 98%, up 4 percentage points from mid-afternoon.
The probability of taking the Senate surged to 88% at one point during the day, 14 percentage points higher than earlier, before falling to around 80%.
The total amount wagered on this midterm election topped $1.48 billion. Trading volume on prediction market Kalshi reached $1.33 billion, while bets on congressional elections on Polymarket amounted to about $145 million.
Just after polls began closing in parts of the eastern U.S. at 6 p.m., about $2 million in new bets came in on Democrats taking both chambers and winning key battlegrounds.
Bets on Democratic candidates also increased in key Senate races. In Texas, the probability of Democratic candidate James Talarico winning rose to 75%, up 3 percentage points from earlier.
In Michigan, the probability of Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed winning rose by 7 percentage points to 83%.
However, prediction-market prices reflect traders’ expectations, not actual vote counts. Some have cautioned against interpreting high probabilities as certainty of victory, noting that prediction-market forecasts have missed the mark in some recent elections.
[email protected] Lee Seok-woo, international affairs correspondent Reporter