Midterms a Crypto Referendum? ... “Can’t Trust Trump’s Crypto Policy” [Crypto Briefing]

[Financial News] A poll found that 62% of registered U.S. voters do not trust the Trump administration’s oversight of the crypto industry.
On the 4th, according to the results of a poll by U.S. polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, 25% of respondents considered crypto an important issue in the midterm elections, while about two-thirds had a negative view of the crypto industry. A total of 73% opposed government officials having personal interests in crypto-related businesses. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered U.S. voters.
As the U.S. midterm elections draw to a close, prediction markets are increasingly favoring the prospect that Democrats will take control of both the Senate and the House.
On the crypto-based prediction market platform Kalshi, the probability of Democrats taking control of both the Senate and the House was put at 76%, while the probability of Democrats taking only the House and Republicans retaining their Senate majority was 20%.
For the House alone, 93.9% of prediction market participants expected Democrats to win and retake the majority. Even in the closely contested Senate, 78% were predicting a Democratic victory.
On Polymarket, too, the probability of Democrats taking both the Senate and the House is put at 77%. Democrats’ chances of winning the House are forecast at 94%, and their chances of winning the Senate at 77%.
The prevailing view is that a Democratic win in the House is highly likely, with the key question being whether the party will also secure a majority in the Senate.
Democrats will become the majority party if they win at least 17 Senate seats this time.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket predict that Democrats will win at least 53 seats, including in Republican strongholds such as Texas, Ohio and Kansas. They assess that Democrats are certain to win 13 seats, are favored in one, and have the edge in five more.
Nearly $1.9 billion (about 2.55 trillion won) is estimated to have been wagered on midterm election prediction markets. More than 7,000 bets have been placed, covering everything from what a particular candidate will say on the campaign trail to the election results. Of the $1.9 billion wagered, $1.3 billion (about 1.75 trillion won) is on Kalshi, while about $600 million (about 800 billion won) is on Polymarket.
[email protected] Han Young-jun Reporter