Harvard: Democrats have a 96% chance of winning the House and a 78% chance of winning the Senate

[Financial News] Harvard University projects that Democrats have a 96% chance of winning the House and a 78% chance of winning the Senate in this midterm election.
According to Harvard’s election model on the 3rd (local time), Democrats have a 96% chance of retaking the majority in the midterm election and are projected to win as many as 242 of the 436 seats.
Harvard said, “The Republican Party’s chances of winning the House are the same as the odds of rolling a ‘20’ on a 20-sided die,” and described this election as “a typical midterm in which the party in power loses seats.”
The Democrats’ chance of winning the Senate was 78%. Harvard projected that Democrats would take 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats and become the majority party.
Of the seven Senate battlegrounds, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Alaska were projected to favor Democrats, while South Carolina and Nebraska were projected to favor Republicans. Harvard’s analysis described Iowa as a toss-up.
Some are also predicting that Democrats could bring about a ‘Blue Tsunami’ (a Democratic landslide), going beyond a ‘Blue Wave’ (a Democratic victory).
Nate Silver, a US election forecasting expert, predicted that a Blue Tsunami was possible, based on poll results released by The New York Times (NYT) on the 1st ahead of the election.
The NYT poll found Democrats leading in six of the seven Senate battlegrounds. Apart from Iowa, where the candidates of the two parties were tied, Democratic candidates were ahead in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Michigan.
If these poll results materialize, Democrats could net at least four Senate seats and retake the majority.
Silver is a figure who attracted nationwide attention after correctly predicting the winners in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.
Although forecasts that Democrats would retake the House majority emerged early, attention is focused on how large a margin they will win by.
Midterm elections are generally seen as a referendum on the party in power. In this midterm, voters are expected to focus their assessment on high inflation caused by the Iran war, a tariff war that does not spare even allies, and a hard-line immigration policy.

[email protected] Lee Seok-woo, International Affairs Correspondent Reporter