IMF: Vietnam’s per capita GDP to surpass Indonesia’s next year

【HANOI, Vietnam—Special Correspondent Kim Jun-seok】The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that Vietnam’s nominal GDP per capita would surpass Indonesia’s this year, putting it in fifth place in ASEAN. Its emergence as a key global supply-chain hub replacing China, particularly in advanced technology and electronics, was seen as driving this growth.
According to local Vietnamese media on the 3rd, the IMF estimated in its recently published October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report that Vietnam’s nominal GDP per capita would reach $5,259 (about 7.05 million won) this year, up 8.9% from the previous year. That is nearly double the level of 10 years ago.
As a result, Vietnam is projected to overtake Indonesia, whose GDP per capita is expected to reach $5,153 this year, and rank fifth among ASEAN member states, after Thailand.
Vietnam has set a target of at least 10% annual economic growth for 2026, while real GDP grew 9.95% year on year in the third quarter, demonstrating strong growth momentum.
Mai Fujita, a senior researcher at Japan’s Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), identified public investment as a key driver of Vietnam’s economic growth. Public investment spending in Vietnam surged 46% year on year from January to September this year. The Vietnamese government plans to allocate a total budget of 1,000 trillion dong (about 52.0139 trillion won) this year, focusing on major transport infrastructure projects such as roads and airports.
Alongside increased public infrastructure investment, foreign direct investment (FDI) is also driving manufacturing and exports. In the first nine months of this year, disbursed FDI in Vietnam totaled $21.1 billion (about 28.3024 trillion won), up 12% year on year, while registered FDI surged 76% to $50.3 billion (about 67.4699 trillion won), demonstrating strong interest in Vietnam among international investors.
Global technology and electronics giants, including Foxconn, are rapidly expanding their production bases, particularly in northern Vietnam. This shows that Vietnam is establishing itself as a production hub capable of replacing China in global supply chains, especially in electronics and high-tech.
Exports have also remained robust. Vietnam’s cumulative exports for the first nine months of this year reached $434.3 billion (about 582 trillion won), up 25% year on year. Major companies, including Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., are actively using Vietnam as a key production base for smartphones and major electronic devices for global markets.
In the longer term, Vietnam has set a goal of raising its GDP per capita to $8,500 (about 11.4 million won) by 2030, the current level in Thailand. Experts said a major challenge remains: Vietnam will need to sustain its high-growth trajectory over the next several years to achieve this goal.
[email protected] Kim Jun-seok Reporter