“Samsung Electronics’ target price cut from 570,000 won to 440,000 won,” but a “Buy” recommendation... POSCO Future M ramps up growth with LFP cathode materials [Stocktopia]

[Financial News] Here is a roundup of reports from major securities firms as of the morning of November 3.
Samsung Electronics is seen as being at a point when investors should increase their holdings, given the possibility of a shift in sentiment in November as memory prices enter a period of steady growth.
S-Oil was assessed as still benefiting from favorable refining conditions and dividend appeal, but analysts said it would need to demonstrate a willingness to raise its payout ratio and confirm the profitability of the Shaheen Project to set another record high. POSCO Future M is expanding into lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials for energy storage systems (ESS), with cathode-material sales forecast to more than double in 2027.
◆ Samsung Electronics (005930)— Korea Investment & Securities / Researcher Ko Young-min
- Target price: 440,000 won (down 22.8%, from 570,000 won) | Previous closing price: 229,000 won
- Rating: Buy (initiated)
Korea Investment & Securities set a target price of 440,000 won for Samsung Electronics, saying this is a time when an aggressive strategy of increasing holdings is warranted.
Researcher Ko Young-min viewed the fourth quarter, when long-term agreement (LTA) coverage is expected to reach around 70%, as the starting point of an extended period of steady growth following the sharp price increases through the third quarter. He estimated fourth-quarter average selling price (ASP) growth at 7% for DRAM and 6% for NAND flash.
Ko said of the slowdown in price growth, “It would be wrong to dismiss it as slower growth; the strength reflected in the earnings level is different from before.” He also pointed out that with LTA coverage nearing 70%, the structure could be seen as limiting room for further ASP increases, but said, “The ASP trend is expected to show further upside expansion over time.”
He identified the third quarter of next year, when shipments of HBM4E, the next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) product, begin in earnest, as the point when ASPs will be reflected more substantially. In foundry operations, the company also secured additional customers among major U.S. cloud service providers (CSPs) in consecutive second and third quarters, and he expects related revenue to be reflected in earnest starting in 2028.
Ko said, “Given the possibility of a shift in sentiment in November, I expect the current level of price appeal to last only through year-end, ahead of the first half of next year,” adding, “This is once again a timely opportunity for an aggressive strategy of increasing holdings.”※ Long-term agreement (LTA)An agreement in which semiconductor suppliers and customers set supply volumes and pricing terms in advance for a period of several years. Such agreements are often signed on terms favorable to suppliers during supply shortages and are considered a factor that helps stabilize earnings.
◆ S-Oil (010950)— Hana Securities / Researcher Yoon Jae-sung
- Target price: 180,000 won (down 18.2%, from 220,000 won) | Previous closing price: 130,000 won
- Rating: Buy (maintained)
Hana Securities cut its forecast for S-Oil’s operating profit next year by 18% and lowered its target price to 180,000 won. The firm said, “We have taken a conservative view of refining margins and the profitability expected from the Shaheen Project’s operations.”
However, it maintained its view that refining conditions will remain solid next year. Researcher Yoon Jae-sung noted that “official selling prices (OSPs) will remain structurally negative, reducing cost pressures,” adding that “dividend yields are attractive, at 4.5% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027.”
The stock recently hit a record high for the first time in 15 years, closing at 170,000 won, but questions remain over its further upside. Yoon said, “To set another all-time high, the company will need to show an aggressive commitment to raising its payout ratio and secure profitability for the Shaheen Project.”
He added, “Until these are confirmed, I believe the stock is likely to trade in a range in the short term, with both downside and upside limited.” Analysts say the share price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly until the company’s commitment to increasing dividends and the Shaheen Project’s profitability are confirmed.※ Official selling price (OSP)The crude oil selling price set each month by state-owned oil companies in oil-producing Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Aramco, for different regions. It is quoted as a premium or discount to benchmark prices such as Dubai crude. A negative OSP means crude is supplied below the benchmark price, reducing the cost burden on refineries that import crude.※ Shaheen ProjectA massive petrochemical-facility investment project undertaken by S-Oil. As the large-scale investment nears completion, the profitability of the facilities once operational is seen as a factor that will determine earnings and the company’s capacity for shareholder returns.
◆ POSCO Future M (003670)— Shinhan Investment & Securities / Research Fellow Lee Jin-myeong
- Target price: 200,000 won (up 25.0%, from 160,000 won) | Previous closing price: 168,900 won
- Rating: Buy (maintained)
Shinhan Investment & Securities raised its target price for POSCO Future M to 200,000 won, saying the company would secure a new growth driver by expanding from electric-vehicle battery materials into LFP cathode materials for ESS.
Research Fellow Lee Jin-myeong forecast, “With LFP mass production and customer diversification, growth in cathode-material shipments is coming into view for 2027.” He added, “Cathode-material sales will reach 100,000 tons, more than double this year’s level, with LFP accounting for over 50%.”
POSCO Future M is converting a production line at its Pohang Plant 2 for LFP, and annual LFP production capacity is expected to rise to 105,000 tons once the conversion is complete. Shinhan Investment & Securities expects the company to use this capacity to meet demand for ESS materials from domestic battery cell makers, including LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI and SK On.
Third-quarter operating profit came to 82.1 billion won, far exceeding the market estimate of 17.9 billion won. This reflected the normalization of high-nickel cathode-material production and higher selling prices, as well as compensation from a customer that failed to purchase the contracted volume. Lee said, “We remained profitable even excluding the effect of the compensation.”※ Lithium iron phosphate (LFP)A battery cathode material made using lithium and iron phosphate. It has a lower energy density than nickel- and cobalt-based cathode materials, but is cheaper and has a longer lifespan, so it is mainly used in ESS batteries.

[email protected] Seong Min-seo Reporter