Prediction Market: “Odds of Democrats Taking Control of the Senate Near 75%”

[Financial News]  

On Kalshi, the odds that Democrats will control the Senate are close to 75%. In this prediction market contract ahead of the midterm elections, the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate have climbed to their highest level ever.
CNBC reported that traders on Kalshi put the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate at 74% on the 2nd (local time), the day before the midterm elections.
As polls by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena University showed Democrats were likely to win in battleground states and reclaim the Senate majority, the same trend was playing out on Kalshi.
In 2024, Kalshi opened a prediction market on which party would control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections, and the Republican Party had been favored ever since. The trend shifted when President Donald Trump started the war with Iran on February 28. The gap between the Republicans’ and Democrats’ odds of controlling the Senate began to narrow, and by mid-September the Democrats had moved ahead. The Republican odds briefly rose to 60% in July, but the balance shifted back toward the Democrats.
Democrats also have a clear edge in forecasts of candidates’ chances of winning in each state.
On Kalshi, the odds of a Democratic candidate winning a Senate seat in Texas jumped from 68.4% to 74% over the past 24 hours. On Polymarket, the odds of a Democratic candidate winning a Senate seat in Iowa rose from 42% to 50% in 24 hours.
An upset also appears increasingly likely in Kansas, where no Democratic candidate has become a U.S. senator since 1932. The odds that Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton will defeat Republican candidate Roger Marshall and win have surged from 52% to 63%.

[email protected] Song Kyung-jae Reporter