U.S. Midterms One Day Away; Democrats Lead in Seven Senate Battleground States

【Financial News, New York — Lee Byung-cheol, correspondent】 The day before the U.S. midterm elections, a poll found that Democrats were leading in all seven key battleground states in the race to regain a majority in the United States Senate. The race is shifting as Democratic candidates also lead in Texas and Kansas, traditional Republican strongholds. Analysts say dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s economic policies and the cost-of-living burden stemming from the Iran war are weakening the Republican Party’s support base.
According to the final poll conducted jointly by The New York Times (NYT) and Siena College from the 23rd of last month through the 1st of this month, Democrats led Republican candidates in all seven key battleground states in the Senate race. The largest margin was in Michigan, at 11 percentage points, followed by Texas at 7 points, Maine and Ohio at 6 points each, and Kansas at 5 points. The races were extremely close in Iowa and Alaska, where the margin was just 1 point in each state.
To win a Senate majority, Democrats must hold all their existing seats while flipping at least four Republican-held seats. The race had initially been viewed as an uphill battle because Democrats needed to win in areas where Republicans were strong. But if the poll results translate into actual votes, Democrats could regain control of the Senate.
The shifts in traditional Republican strongholds are drawing particular attention. In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico led Republican candidate Ken Paxton, 50% to 43%. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. In Kansas, where no Democratic candidate has won a Senate race since 1932, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton led Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, 49% to 44%.
Dissatisfaction with President Trump’s handling of the country is thought to have contributed to Republicans’ struggles. His job approval rating stood at just 38% across the seven states surveyed. That marks a substantial shift, given that Trump won five of those states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.
The biggest factor is the economy. On the cost of living, voters’ top concern this year, Democrats had a 9-point advantage over Republicans in voter confidence. In all seven states surveyed, respondents also said Democratic candidates would do a better job addressing the cost of living.
Signs of a fracture have emerged even among the white working-class voters who form a key part of Trump’s support base. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump won about 66% of white voters without college degrees, but Republican candidates’ support among this group stood at just 56% in the poll across the seven states. Support for Republican candidates among young voters and Latino voters also remained around 25% for each group.
Democrats also secured more support than Republicans among independents in all seven states surveyed. Compared with the September poll, Democrats widened their lead or turned a deficit into a lead in six states; only in Alaska did the margin narrow.
Still, it is too early to be optimistic about the actual election results. Undecided voters remain, and Republicans led by 9 percentage points among voters who chose their preferred candidate in the past month. White working-class voters in particular have been a group where past polls showed substantial discrepancies with actual voting behavior.




[email protected] Lee Byung-cheol, correspondent Reporter