OPEC+ to Keep December Oil Output Target at Current Levels

[Financial News] OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major oil-producing countries, has decided to keep its oil production target for December at current levels. With export disruptions caused by the Iran war continuing, further policy adjustments appear to have been deferred until next year or later, as the market expected.
On the 1st (local time), representatives of the seven key OPEC+ oil producers—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman—said in a statement after an online meeting that they would maintain output next month.
Oil-producing countries in the Gulf region have increased exports somewhat in recent months after conflict disrupted them, but most are still producing volumes well below their production targets.
OPEC+ comprises 21 oil-producing countries, and monthly output decisions in recent years have been made mainly by key producers, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which left OPEC last May. All OPEC+ members are scheduled to hold a regular meeting on the 29th, where market experts expect the 2027 production quotas to be finalized.
Jorge León, an analyst at energy consultancy Rystad Energy, said, “Today’s decision was a relatively easy choice,” adding, “The real test will be the ministerial meeting on November 29, which will determine the 2027 production framework.”
International oil prices jumped more than 2% on the 30th, reflecting concerns that the Iran-related conflict could intensify further after the U.S. midterm elections. Brent crude futures came close to $118 a barrel, reaching their highest level since April.
However, major institutions including the International Energy Agency (IEA) have warned that a severe supply glut could emerge in 2027 if crude oil transportation through the Gulf region returns to normal.
Analyst León said, “OPEC+ is facing a situation in which it must make very difficult decisions ahead of 2027,” adding that it “must draw up a plan that takes into account major uncertainties, including the course of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the pace of the recovery in crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the scale of any supply glut when volumes disrupted by production outages return to the market.”
The seven key oil-producing countries have steadily raised their production targets in 2026, and last September completed the phased unwinding of cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day, agreed in 2023. In subsequent meetings, they froze their production targets for October and November.
OPEC+ is currently maintaining additional cuts of about 2 million barrels per day, which apply to most members, through the end of 2026.
According to sources, OPEC+ faces the task of completing assessments of member countries’ production capacity in the fourth quarter of this year to plan future easing of cuts and set production baselines for 2027. However, conflict has disrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East, making estimates of future production potential uncertain.

[email protected] Yoon Jae-joon Reporter