[Editorial] All sites for 100,000 homes in the Seoul metropolitan area unveiled—but still not enough

The government announced on the 29th a plan for new public housing sites in six areas of Gyeonggi Province bordering Seoul, where 76,700 homes will be provided. Added to the 27,200 homes first announced in the Aug. 13 supply package, the total comes to 103,900. The locations for all 100,000 homes in the new sites originally promised by the government for the Seoul metropolitan area have finally been disclosed. The additional candidate sites are in Gimpo, Guri, Hanam-si, Uijeongbu and Goyang City. They are within 5 km of Seoul’s boundary, offering good access to downtown.
But selecting sites does not mean homes will appear right away. Seoul apartment prices have risen for 90 consecutive weeks despite repeated government regulations. Prices in the Gangnam area are undergoing a correction, but increases continue in Gangbuk and outlying areas. Jeonse prices are also in turmoil. As the government has emphasized, the fundamental solution to ease anxiety is “supply, no questions asked” (“dakgong”). The pace of supply must be doubled or tripled from its current level.
It is welcome that the government has again stressed it will shorten project timelines by applying a model designed to begin construction as quickly as possible at the new sites. But its plan to cut the time until construction starts from 68 months to 37 months is achievable only if backed by institutional reforms. Moreover, the government has yet to finalize the specific number of homes whose construction will begin by 2030. According to the government, the first residents of projects breaking ground in 2030 could move in as early as 2033. Can plans whose supply effects will take so long to materialize calm the market’s immediate anxiety? The government should promptly finalize compensation, construction-start, presale and move-in schedules for each district, and transparently disclose progress.
Delays in land compensation and permitting must not be allowed to recur. Even Gyeyang District in Incheon, the fastest of the Third New Towns, is not due to see its first residents move in until this December. That means it will have taken a full eight years since the first announcement in 2018. When supply is delayed, the policy’s impact is bound to be diminished, however favorable the location. Plans to relocate existing residents and businesses should be prepared early, and the various reviews should be completed swiftly. Expansion of the regional transportation network should also proceed in step with the housing supply schedule.
About half of the homes announced this time are planned for Gimpo Ara District. A total of 37,000 homes will be built there. Gimpo already suffers from severe commuting congestion. If large housing complexes are built first, traffic congestion will worsen. In other areas, including Hanam and Goyang, it is also unclear whether planned rail extensions and road expansion projects will be carried out as scheduled. Infrastructure plans must be made thoroughly to prevent a repeat of the transportation problems that have affected residents after moving into other new towns.
The expansion of housing supply in downtown Seoul must not continue to be delayed. All six sites announced this time are in Gyeonggi Province. Of the total 103,900 homes, Seoul’s share is just 1,000 in Gangseo District. It will be difficult to meet housing demand concentrated in Seoul with sites in Gyeonggi alone. The Tancheon Water Recycling Center and Suseo Vehicle Depot in Seoul, which had been mentioned as potential sites for additional housing, were left out of this announcement.
The government and Seoul Metropolitan Government should identify as many sites as possible and narrow their differences. They should also work together to shorten permitting timelines and improve the feasibility of private redevelopment and reconstruction projects. Relying only on new site development, which takes a long time, may make it difficult to address instability in the jeonse and monthly-rental markets.
The housing market can stabilize only when the number and timing of homes actually available for occupancy are made concrete, rather than merely laid out in a supply blueprint. The broad plan for 100,000 homes in the Seoul metropolitan area is now in place. The success of “dakgong” depends on how quickly construction starts and residents move in. The government should refrain from premature forecasts, such as the possibility of a market collapse, and throw itself into strengthening its ability to deliver the promised supply.