Fears of a US “renewed attack on Iran” and a cold snap converge...European gas prices top €100 for the first time in four years

[Financial News] The possibility of the US striking Iran again, combined with concerns about an approaching winter cold snap, has driven European natural gas prices above €100 (about ₩149,800) for the first time in roughly four years, since the 2022 energy crisis.

According to the Financial Times (FT) and other foreign media on the 28th (local time), November-delivery natural gas on the Dutch TTF exchange, the benchmark for European natural gas prices, rose at least 4% from the previous session to an intraday high of €100.30 per megawatt-hour (MWh) (about ₩150,250).
European gas prices have topped €100 for the first time since December 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis. As recently as February this year, just before the Iran war began, prices were trading at around €30 per MWh (about ₩44,940), but they have surged more than threefold since the war began, rising 38% this month alone.

The biggest trigger for the price surge is heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump signaled the possibility of another attack on Iran after the midterm elections on the 3rd of next month. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also reported that the US had told Arab countries in the Gulf region to prepare for a short, high-intensity military operation against Iran immediately after the midterms.
This has fueled concerns that Qatar, one of the world’s largest suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), could reduce exports in November and December. Energy consultancy Energy Aspects forecast serious disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG supplies if the war with Iran escalates. Markets have also sharply raised the probability of a shortage of Middle Eastern LNG this winter, from 51% last week to 73%.
Tom Marzec-Manser of energy research firm Wood Mackenzie said that “€100 is clearly a psychological resistance level,” but added that “with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East changing rapidly and the US midterm elections approaching, it would not take much to push European gas prices higher.”

Europe’s volatile supply-and-demand situation and weather conditions are also pushing prices higher. Weather experts warned that the “sudden stratospheric warming” over the Arctic in early November could allow cold Arctic air to flow into Northern Europe. Demand for heating gas is expected to surge, but inventories in European gas storage facilities have fallen to record lows, leaving supply concerns at a critical level. The EU’s planned ban on all imports of Russian natural gas next January is also adding to market jitters.
Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the United States, said that “the effects of the wars in Ukraine and Iran are combining, driving up prices for all commodities and causing them to affect one another.”
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