Israeli election produces no majority... Could the Iran war flare up?

【Financial News, New York City—Correspondent Lee Byung-chul】 With neither bloc expected to win a majority in Israel’s general election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival and the course of the Iran war have emerged as new variables. If talks to form a coalition government drag on, Netanyahu could lead a caretaker government and decide on further military operations against Iran. Some Middle East experts warn that the political deadlock could actually heighten military tensions with Iran.
Exit polls released by major Israeli broadcasters on the 27th (local time) showed a tight race between the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bloc. Revised exit polls by Channel 13 and public broadcaster Kan showed the two blocs tied at 51 seats each. Keshet 12 projected that the opposition would win 52 seats and Netanyahu’s bloc 50.
A further revised poll later projected 52 seats for the opposition, 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc and 18 for Arab parties. Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats in total; a majority is 61.
Netanyahu’s Likud Party was expected to win more seats than any other individual party, but his governing coalition as a whole fell well short of a majority. The opposition, too, would struggle to form a government without the support of Arab parties. However, Eisenkot and some opposition leaders oppose cooperating with Arab parties, meaning a change of government is expected to face significant hurdles.
This is the first nationwide election since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest in more than 20 years.

The problem is that even if the opposition wins more seats, Netanyahu will not necessarily step down immediately.
After a general election, Israel’s president consults with each party and gives the mandate to form a coalition government to the person deemed most likely to succeed. The nominee is given up to 42 days to negotiate; if they fail, another candidate gets a chance. If efforts to form a government ultimately fail, another election may be held.
In the meantime, the outgoing government runs the country as a caretaker government. This means Netanyahu could remain prime minister despite losing his majority in the election if coalition talks continue for months.
Reuters analyzed that the deadlock following the election could actually work in Netanyahu’s favor. If the opposition fails to muster enough seats to change the government, Netanyahu could continue in office as caretaker prime minister.
Senior fellow Yossi Mekelberg of the UK think tank Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, also noted in an interview with Euronews that Netanyahu could remain in power for months. He highlighted in particular that a caretaker government can still make important military decisions related to national security.

Israeli security experts say the political uncertainty following the election could increase the likelihood of further military action against Iran. Al-Monitor, a US publication specializing in Middle East affairs, reported on the 23rd, citing Dennis Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), that the risk of an independent Israeli attack on Iran could rise if neither bloc wins a majority.
Citrinowicz, who previously worked on Iran analysis for Israeli military intelligence, said one possible scenario would be for Netanyahu to attack Iran with the approval of US President Donald Trump, then use the attack as a catalyst to pursue the formation of a national unity government. He said it would be unprecedented for a prime minister without a clear mandate to pursue such a military operation, but that the possibility could not be ruled out. However, this is a scenario put forward by an expert; no actual attack plan has been confirmed.
During the election campaign, Netanyahu has argued that the threat posed by Iran’s regime must be eliminated and the war brought to an end. Eisenkot, a former chief of staff, takes the position that resuming a full-scale military operation would be justified only if Iran’s moves to develop nuclear weapons were clearly confirmed. He has particularly stressed close coordination with United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) and has taken a cautious stance toward unilateral military action.

Another factor that will shape the course of the Iran war is President Trump. Trump publicly backed Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s election, but the two are reportedly not fully aligned over further military operations. The Financial Times (FT) reported earlier this month that Netanyahu had pushed for a new joint military attack on Iran, but Trump blocked it.
The United States is heading into midterm elections on November 3. With rising energy prices and the cost of military operations due to a prolonged war with Iran affecting the US economy and political landscape, further escalation could also pose a burden for the Trump administration.
Al-Monitor cited expert analysis that it would be difficult for further Israeli military operations to achieve their objectives without US approval or direct military support. Ultimately, the course of the Iran war could be shaped by Israel’s coalition negotiations and President Trump’s choices after the US midterm elections.
The United States Congress is another factor. If Democrats gain control of Congress in the midterm elections, they could increase oversight of the Trump administration’s further military operations through measures such as defense budget decisions and arms-sale approvals.
However, even if Eisenkot becomes the next prime minister, Israel’s hard-line stance toward Iran is not expected to change fundamentally. Reuters analyzed that while Eisenkot opposes Netanyahu’s political leadership and far-right coalition, he maintains a hard-line position on security issues.


[email protected] Correspondent Lee Byung-chul Reporter