“$6 Trillion in Investment in the U.S. Is a Reverse Marshall Plan” ... Global Scholars Offer Solutions for Korea’s Growth

[Financial News] An analysis has found that the large-scale commitments to invest in the United States secured by the Trump administration from major trading partners through tariff negotiations amount to a “reverse Marshall Plan,” shifting the cost of rebuilding U.S. manufacturing onto its trading partners. As trade between the United States and China continues through third countries despite high tariffs, calls have also emerged for a new growth strategy for the Korean economy to meet the challenges of a reshaping global trade order and the race for artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy.
On the 27th, the Federation of Korean Industries (FKI) held an international conference jointly with the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) at the conference center in FKI Tower in Seoul. Held under the theme “A New Growth Strategy in an Age of Division: The Future of Trade, Industry and Jobs,” the event brought together scholars from Korea and abroad to explore growth strategies for the Korean economy amid tariff disputes, supply-chain realignment and the spread of artificial intelligence (AI).
In his opening remarks, FKI Chairman Ryu Jin emphasized that “the strength to overcome division and conflict ultimately comes from growth,” adding that “business investment and innovation open up new industries and markets, and proactive policies must support them.”
Keynote speeches and a panel discussion explored how AI could create new growth opportunities even amid division. In his keynote address, World Bank President Ajay Banga discussed the relationship between AI and employment, saying, “There is still insufficient empirical evidence that AI is reducing jobs.” He noted, “What matters now is not how many jobs AI will eliminate, but how we can use AI to raise labor productivity and improve working conditions.” He also argued that emerging and developing countries should focus on affordable, simple “small AI” tailored to agriculture, education and healthcare rather than developing their own large-scale models, which require astronomical sums to build.
At a panel discussion chaired by Jeongcheol, president of the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI) and FKI’s chief research officer, PIIE President Adam Posen said that open economies like Korea should broaden cooperation as AI technology divides into U.S. and Chinese camps. Rhee Chang-yong, former governor of the Bank of Korea and a visiting fellow at PIIE, said Korea’s growth potential is declining because of low birth rates and an aging population, and that it must use AI to boost productivity, backed by structural reform. Jeongcheol stressed that “small AI” could offer a new opportunity for Korea as it seeks to become an AI hub. He proposed developing AI solutions that combine U.S. technological reliability with China’s price competitiveness, and contributing to the use of AI, digital transformation and productivity gains around the world through open and flexible cooperation on technology and standards.
Later sessions also featured analysis that U.S. trade policies, including tariffs and pressure for investment in the United States, were producing results contrary to their intended aims.
PIIE Vice President Marcus Noland described the roughly $6 trillion in commitments to invest in the United States secured by the Trump administration from nine economies in return for tariff negotiations as a “Marshall Plan in reverse.” After World War II, the United States financed Europe’s reconstruction; this time, partner countries are financing the rebuilding of U.S. manufacturing, he said.
Noland said, “Countries sending such huge sums abroad bear an additional burden on top of the investment itself, as their real incomes fall when their currencies depreciate.” According to the analysis, growth will slow slightly in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, while growth in the United States will pick up somewhat; its trade deficit, however, will actually widen because of a stronger dollar. He assessed that the impact on Korea would be relatively smaller because its investment period is 10 years, longer than Japan’s four years.
PIIE Senior Fellow Mary Lovely, speaking on the theme “Rerouting, Not Retreat,” said that “U.S. tariff barriers have not brought about U.S.-China decoupling.”
As a result of tariffs, China’s share of direct imports into the United States fell from 22% in 2017 to 9% in 2025. But over the same period, the Chinese value added entering through “connector countries” such as Mexico and Vietnam rose sharply, from 16% to 25%. Lovely said that as global trade continues to grow, particularly in AI-related goods, even under trade restrictions, Korea needs to continue diversifying its trade.
[email protected] Lim Su-bin Reporter