U.S. midterms... Democrats wary of excessive hopes for victory; 'Shy Trump' a wildcard for Republicans

[Financial News] Ahead of next month's U.S. midterm elections, hopes are rising among Democrats for a massive "blue wave." Recent major polls show Democratic candidates running neck and neck in staunchly Republican areas where victory would have been far from assured just a few months ago. Some, however, warn that expectations have risen so high that if Democrats fail to achieve the "best-case scenario" of sweeping both chambers of Congress on Election Day, considerable disappointment will follow.
Political commentator David Axelrod said in an interview with CNN last week, "Democrats are in a position to perform well and make meaningful gains in a sufficient number of states," but added that "it wouldn't be surprising if they fell short of retaking the Senate."
On the 24th, The New York Times (NYT) reported that Democrats were optimistic as they led in the polls, but that warnings of excessive expectations were emerging as they faced the difficult political reality that victory would not be easy.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to win in "red states" carried by President Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Some of these states are places where Democrats have not won for decades. Republicans also have a commanding lead in campaign ad spending there, while the Democratic brand remains unpopular among voters.
Molly Murphy, who worked on the campaigns of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential election, said, "I'm concerned that expectations seem overheated." NYT reported that, following the 2024 election, Elon Musk's substantial political donations have been prompting Republican-leaning voters who previously had little interest in midterms to turn out actively.
The uncertainty of the polls was also flagged. In more conservative states, Democratic respondents may be oversampled, which could mean Republicans receive more votes than the polls suggest. In a recent survey, satisfaction with the Democratic brand itself stood at just 28%, below the ratings for the Republican Party or Trump. Republicans are aggressively attacking Democratic candidates as far-left and socialist.
Attention is turning to whether the so-called "Shy Trump" phenomenon—hidden support among President Trump's voters—will become a late wildcard that could upend the Senate race in this U.S. midterm election.
Most polls currently show Democrats ahead, and some have even raised the possibility that Democrats could retake the Senate. But the key question is whether current polling results can be fully trusted. Experts say it is important to examine closely whether polls have failed to capture "Shy Trump" voters or, conversely, have overstated the Democratic lead.
With major Republican strongholds turning into battlegrounds in the polls, if hidden support among President Trump's base coalesces at the last minute and Republicans manage to hold onto the Senate, they could launch a major campaign to tout the fact that they kept the Senate despite losing the House. So far, Democrats and Republicans have often interpreted midterm results as victories on their own terms. For example, in the 2022 midterms, held after the Supreme Court's decision overturning abortion rights, Democrats celebrated what they saw as a de facto victory despite losing their House majority by giving up just nine seats. In the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost 41 House seats and ceded their majority, President Trump pointed to their retention of the Senate majority and claimed it was "a result that far exceeded historical precedents."
[email protected] Yoon Jae-joon Reporter