“Beyond HBM to DRAM and NAND ... the memory market to enter the 2-quadrillion-won era next year” — Daishin Securities

[Financial News] The global memory market is expected to exceed $1.5 trillion next year, buoyed by increased investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Analysts say growth in the memory semiconductor industry will accelerate further as demand spreads beyond high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to server DRAM and NAND flash (NAND). In particular, supply shortages are expected to persist for the time being as major semiconductor manufacturers remain cautious about expanding production capacity.
Hyungkeun Ryu, a researcher at Daishin Securities, forecast in a research report on the 26th that “the global memory semiconductor market will grow 60%, from $949.6 billion (about 1,260 trillion won) this year to $1.5188 trillion (about 2,015 trillion won) next year.” Compared with last year’s market size of $219.7 billion, this would represent an almost sevenfold expansion in just two years.
The main driver of growth is rising demand for server memory, led by AI data centers. Analysts say global cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing both the duration and size of long-term contracts with memory suppliers as they compete to secure AI infrastructure. Some customers are reportedly seeking contracts that guarantee supply for 10 years, through 2035.
The general-purpose DRAM market is also expected to grow rapidly. Daishin Securities forecast that the global market for general-purpose DRAM will reach $897.3 billion (about 1,190 trillion won) next year, up 55% from this year’s forecast of $578.2 billion (about 767 trillion won). This is seen as intensifying competition for memory purchases, particularly as server companies join the race to secure low-power DRAM (LPDDR), which is primarily used in mobile devices.
Prices are also expected to continue rising. Server DRAM prices are expected to rise by a mid-teens percentage over the two-quarter period from this year’s fourth quarter through next year’s first quarter. Mobile DRAM prices, too, are projected to rise by 30% or more quarter over quarter in next year’s first quarter as new contract structures are factored in.
The HBM market is expected to grow even faster than the general-purpose DRAM market. Daishin Securities forecast that the global HBM market, estimated at $56.1 billion (about 74 trillion won) this year, will surge 192% to $163.9 billion (about 217 trillion won) next year. In particular, as supplies of high-value products such as HBM4 (sixth generation) expand, the average selling price (ASP) of HBM is expected to rise 89% next year from this year.
The NAND market is also expected to continue growing, buoyed by rising demand for enterprise solid-state drives (eSSDs) for AI data centers.
However, supply shortages of memory products that Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. and SK hynix focus on are expected to persist, as production capacity is not expanding fast enough to keep pace with demand. Ryu said, “Major memory suppliers will move ahead with factory construction proactively, while flexibly adjusting investment in equipment directly tied to actual production to match customer demand.”
[email protected] Lim Su-bin Reporter