Celltrion targets Japan’s allergy market with Omlyclo; price target of 260,000 won

[Financial News] iM Securities forecast that Celltrion will secure mid- to long-term growth opportunities in Japan’s allergy biosimilar market.
Sales contributions from Omlyclo, an omalizumab biosimilar, are expected to be limited early after its launch in Japan due to factors such as low awareness among healthcare professionals. However, the analysis said gradual market penetration would be possible if government policies to expand biosimilar use, competitive pricing, and local business strategies come together.
iM Securities maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Celltrion and set a target price of 260,000 won.
On the 23rd, iM Securities researcher Jung Jae-won assessed the growth potential of Japan’s allergy biosimilar market based on a visit to WAC 2026, a joint congress with the World Allergy Organization (WAO) and other organizations held in Kyoto, Japan, and interviews with local healthcare professionals and the local subsidiary. Based on Celltrion’s closing price of 194,300 won the previous day, the upside to the target price is 33.8%.
Celltrion’s Omlyclo received approval from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in March this year for three indications: asthma, idiopathic chronic urticaria, and seasonal allergic rhinitis.
It has been listed at the current drug price and is being prepared for launch, with entry into the Japanese market planned in time for next year’s hay fever season. After Europe and the United States, Japan is expected to become Omlyclo’s third major market.
Researcher Jung assessed, “It will be difficult to expect rapid sales growth from the outset,” and explained, “This is because physicians in otolaryngology, where prescriptions are expected to be concentrated, have virtually no experience prescribing biosimilars.”
Because awareness of the product’s clinical equivalence and safety needs to be raised, prescriptions are expected to expand gradually at first. The market is also limited in size because omalizumab use for hay fever in Japan is restricted to severe patients and similar cases.
Nevertheless, structural changes in the Japanese market were cited as a mid- to long-term opportunity. The Japanese government has set a goal of increasing the share of targeted ingredients for which biosimilars account for at least 80% of the market to at least 60% of all targeted ingredients by March 2030.
Policy measures initially focused on incentives for medical institutions, but are now being strengthened, with discussions extending to measures that would increase the burden on patients who choose original drugs.
Biosimilars priced about 30% below original drugs could reduce the burden on patients and support wider prescribing.
In Japan, Omlyclo is priced at 8,044 yen for 75 mg and 14,602 yen for 150 mg, about 70% of the price of the original drug. The report said clinical data confirmed therapeutic equivalence with the original drug and that efficacy was maintained in patients who switched from the original product to Omlyclo, describing these findings as grounds for easing physicians’ concerns.
Researcher Jung forecast, “The keys to gaining an early foothold in the market will be building awareness of the product and accumulating real-world prescribing experience.”
Changes to distribution and sales strategies are also a factor in improving profitability over the mid to long term. Celltrion is shifting to a direct-sales model in Japan and pursuing the localization of production (Fill & Finish).
Although the shift to direct sales may increase costs in the short term, the analysis said Celltrion could improve profitability over the mid to long term by bringing in-house the distribution margins it previously paid to partners. Its experience securing market share for trastuzumab and bevacizumab biosimilars in Japan was also cited as a strength.
[email protected] Kang Jung-mo Reporter