Oh Se-hoon’s second-trial verdict due on the 23rd; political upheaval expected

The outcome of the second-trial ruling in the case accusing Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, a leading potential presidential candidate, of violating the Political Funds Act is expected to cause major shifts in the political landscape among potential contenders.
Regardless of whether he is found guilty or acquitted, the ruling is expected to affect not only Oh’s personal political future but also bring major upheaval to the political scene. Although it will not be the final ruling, if he is sentenced to lose his mayoral office, the prospects for holding a Seoul mayoral by-election next April will become clearer, and potential presidential contenders from both the ruling and opposition parties are expected to start preparing. If he is acquitted, Oh’s political stature, diminished by legal troubles, is also likely to grow, with a major realignment of forces within the opposition possible.
According to political circles and the courts on the 22nd, the second-trial ruling in the so-called case involving Oh over alleged payments on someone else’s behalf for Myeong Tae-gyun opinion polls is expected on the 23rd. The political scene in Yeouido is expected to be greatly shaken regardless of whether Oh is found guilty or acquitted on appeal.
Oh is a heavyweight figure vying for one of the top two spots among the opposition’s leading potential presidential candidates. Although this will not be the final ruling, if he is sentenced to lose his mayoral office, the political world is likely to effectively begin preparing for the April Seoul mayoral by-election.
Oh’s political future would also be in jeopardy, and the People Power Party would lose a leading presidential candidate. However, analysts say that since Oh has opposed the Jang Dong-hyuk leadership within the party, party leader Jang could gain greater room to maneuver within it. The prospects for an alliance between independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon and Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok—discussed as a ‘centrist-conservative alliance’ with Oh at its center—could also become even more uncertain.
If Oh is acquitted, he is expected to make a dramatic comeback and emerge as the opposition’s leading potential presidential candidate. Given the political world’s tendency to realign around presidential candidates, his political presence is likely to grow further. The Jang Dong-hyuk leadership would also be significantly affected. If party forces realign around Oh, Jang’s standing could be weakened by a centrist-conservative alliance.
[email protected] Lee Hae-ram Reporter