Political circles set for a shake-up, guilty verdict or acquittal, as all eyes turn to Oh Se-hoon's second-trial ruling

[Financial News] The second-trial sentencing hearing in the case accusing Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, a leading contender in the next presidential race, of violating the Political Funds Act will be held on the 23rd. Regardless of whether he is found guilty or acquitted, the verdict is expected to trigger a major political shake-up, affecting not only Oh’s personal political future but the broader political arena. Although it will not be a final ruling, a sentence that costs him his mayoral post would clarify whether a Seoul mayoral by-election will be held next April, and potential presidential contenders from both parties are expected to begin preparing. If he is acquitted, Oh’s political standing, which has been diminished by legal risks, is likely to grow further, potentially reshaping forces within the opposition as well.
According to political circles and the courts on the 22nd, a second-trial ruling in the so-called case involving alleged third-party payments for Myeong Tae-gyun’s opinion polls is expected on the 23rd. The first-instance court found the charges against Oh proven and sentenced him to a fine of 10 million won and an additional collection of 21 million won. The ruling is due three months after the first-instance verdict, in line with the “6-3-3 principle” (six months for the first trial and three months for each of the second and third trials). If the Supreme Court of Korea adheres to this principle, the third-trial ruling will come in January next year, and the Seoul mayoral by-election will be held on April 7.
Across the political spectrum, the prevailing view was that the first-instance guilty verdict against Oh could be upheld in the second and third trials. The Democratic Party of Korea, in particular, appeared to be weighing its options as it sought a candidate for next April’s Seoul mayoral by-election. In the process, a notebook belonging to party leader Kim Min-seok was spotted, listing “Hoon-sik (Kang Hoon-sik, former chief of staff at the Blue House), Won-shik (Woo Won-shik, former National Assembly speaker), and Cheong-rae (Jung Cheong-rae, former party leader).” A Democratic Party official said, “Assuming a Seoul mayoral election will be held, we’ve already begun preparing to develop policy pledges,” adding, “The candidate will also be chosen through a primary.” People Power Party lawmakers Na Kyung-won, Shin Dong-wook, Park Soo-min and Ahn Cheol-soo were also mentioned as potential candidates.
The mood shifted somewhat last October, however, when former President Yoon Suk Yeol was acquitted in the second trial of the case involving the free provision of Myeong Tae-gyun’s opinion polls. Analysts said the ruling could have an effect, although the cases cannot be directly compared. Oh’s side is hoping for an acquittal, as a new recording in which someone says, “Oh Se-hoon doesn’t know,” was admitted as evidence.
Regardless of whether Oh is found guilty or acquitted in the second trial, the political arena in Yeouido is expected to be shaken significantly. Oh is a heavyweight figure vying for one of the top two spots among the opposition’s leading presidential hopefuls. Although the ruling will not be final, if Oh receives a sentence that costs him his mayoral post, political circles are likely to move in effect into preparations for an April Seoul mayoral by-election. Oh’s political future would also be at risk, and the People Power Party would lose a leading presidential contender. However, analysts say party leader Jang Dong-hyuk could gain more room to maneuver within the party, since Oh is among those who have opposed Jang’s leadership. Whether independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon and Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok will align could also become even more uncertain; a “centrist-conservative alliance” centered on Oh has been discussed as a possibility involving the two.
If Oh is acquitted, he is expected to make a dramatic comeback and emerge as the opposition’s leading presidential hopeful. Given the tendency of politics to reorganize around presidential contenders, his presence in the political arena is likely to grow further. The ruling would also have a significant impact on Jang Dong-hyuk’s leadership. If party forces realign around Oh, a centrist-conservative alliance could weaken Jang’s standing.
There is also internal criticism that the Democratic Party is caught in a no-win situation, whatever the verdict. If Oh receives a sentence that costs him his mayoral post, the party will have to contest by-elections for Seoul mayor and a National Assembly seat in Gangneung when defeat looks likely; if he is acquitted, it will effectively give Oh a path back into politics. A Democratic Party official said, “In the current situation, defeat in elections across the Seoul metropolitan area is inevitable,” adding, “It may be better for Kim Min-seok’s leadership if no election is held.”
A loss in the Seoul mayoral election is also expected to affect the general election in 2028. A ruling-party official voiced concern, saying, “If we hold a general election in the current climate, even winning 100–120 seats would be precarious, and people are even talking about losing every seat in the Seoul metropolitan area.” By contrast, some in the People Power Party are cautiously saying, “Even a guilty verdict wouldn’t be a loss,” given their confidence in winning the Seoul mayoral by-election even if they lose Oh.
[email protected] Lee Hae-ram Reporter