As fuel prices soar, Republican strongholds turn away... Trump scrambles to soothe farmers

【The Financial News, New York—Correspondent Lee Byeong-cheol】 With the U.S. midterm elections just two weeks away, President Donald Trump has begun courting voters in the Midwest’s agricultural regions, a traditional base of support for the Republican Party. As soaring diesel and fertilizer prices increase the economic burden on farms, analysts say Democrats are better positioned than Republicans to secure a majority in the House of Representatives. With districts held by Republican incumbents accounting for at least 70% of all competitive races, economic discontent in agricultural regions is emerging as a key factor in the final stretch of the campaign.
■ Trump seeks to soothe farmers
After holding a rally in Kansas on the 19th (local time) to support Republican candidates, President Trump is scheduled to visit Sioux City, Iowa, on the 22nd. Vice President JD Vance will also campaign that day in North Platte, Nebraska. With just two weeks until the midterms, the president and vice president are focusing their efforts on three Midwestern states with large agricultural sectors.
Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska have traditionally been Republican strongholds. All six U.S. senators from the three states are Republicans. Republicans also hold all four House seats in Iowa and all three in Nebraska, as well as three of Kansas’s four seats. In total, Republicans hold 16 of the 17 Senate and House seats representing the three states. President Trump also won all three states in the 2024 presidential election.
But economic discontent is growing amid rising farm production costs, tariff policies and soaring energy prices due to the war in Iran. According to the Associated Press, the average U.S. diesel price was $6.30 per gallon (3.8 liters) on the 16th, up more than 70% from a year earlier. Farmers facing the fall harvest season are bearing the full burden of fuel costs needed to operate farm machinery and transport produce.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that net farm income would fall 2.6% this year from the previous year, while production costs would rise 4.5%. Fuel and petroleum-related costs are expected to surge by about 30%. Analysts say rising fertilizer and seed prices are also eroding farm profitability.
Glenn Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, told the Associated Press, “It feels like pressure is coming from every direction,” voicing farmers’ difficulties. He expressed concern that farmers’ economic discontent could dampen the enthusiasm of Republican-supporting farmers to turn out to vote.
At a rally in Kansas on the 19th, President Trump announced a new $8 billion harvest-season fuel assistance program to ease farmers’ diesel costs. Earlier, during a visit to Nebraska on the 5th, he also signed an executive order easing restrictions on the use of tax-exempt diesel for agricultural purposes. Policy announcements and campaign rallies aimed at easing economic discontent in agricultural regions have been coming in quick succession.
■ 21 toss-up districts between Democrats and Republicans draw attention
As economic discontent in the agricultural Midwest draws attention, a significant number of competitive House districts that Republican incumbents must defend have emerged nationwide.
According to the Cook Political Report’s House race analysis on the 19th, of the 435 seats, 185 were rated as safe for Democrats and 17 as likely Democratic wins. For Republicans, 171 seats were rated safe and 16 likely wins. That puts 202 seats in the Democrats’ safe column and 187 in the Republicans’. To reach the 218 seats needed for a House majority, Democrats need to win 16 more seats, while Republicans need 31.
Particularly notable is the distribution of incumbents across the 46 districts contested by both parties. Republican incumbents hold 34 of them (74%), compared with 12 held by Democratic incumbents. Republicans therefore have far more districts to defend than Democrats. The 46 competitive districts break down into 13 favoring Republicans, 12 favoring Democrats and 21 toss-ups in which the parties are closely matched.
The Washington Post (WP) wrote in an analysis on the 19th that “as the midterms approach, the political environment appears to be growing increasingly favorable for Democrats and increasingly bleak for Republicans.” It noted in particular that even districts previously expected to deliver comfortable Republican victories are becoming competitive.
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