Alberta residents likely to choose staying in Canada over secession

[Financial News]  In a historic vote on whether Alberta should secede from Canada, residents chose to remain in Canada by an overwhelming margin. This has allowed the country to avoid an economic and political crisis for now, but deep political divisions and conflict in the province are expected to persist for some time.
On the 19th (local time), projections from Canadian public broadcaster CBC showed that, with 41% of the vote counted, 76% favored remaining in Canada, while fewer than 25% supported holding a binding second referendum on secession. Final results are expected on the morning of the 20th.
By region, more than 80% of voters in the major cities of Edmonton and Calgary favored staying in Canada. At least 60% in the central suburbs also chose to remain, making the pro-Canada view dominant across Alberta.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has strongly criticized the vote as “dangerous blackmail.” Having observed the Brexit process as a former governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Carney warned of the devastating economic fallout secession would bring and urged Alberta to remain in the federation.
With Canada facing trade tensions with the United States and threats to its sovereignty from U.S. President Donald Trump, the assessment is that the country as a whole could have plunged into extreme turmoil had the process proceeded to a second vote on secession.
Conservative Alberta, which boasts the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, has long been in constant conflict with the federal government. Feelings of alienation and discontent reached a peak during former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure, when the government imposed COVID-19 measures and regulated oil and gas production to reduce carbon emissions.
Since taking office, Prime Minister Carney, who is from Alberta, has actively sought to improve relations, easing some environmental regulations there and approving a new oil pipeline to the British Columbia coast after designating it a “project of national interest.” These policies are believed to have played a decisive role in changing the minds of Alberta residents.
Despite the result, separatists said, “This is only the beginning,” and vowed to continue their fight, suggesting the discord will persist.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith of the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) is criticized by both sides: although she presents herself as a federalist, she came to power in 2022 with support from separatists. After a court rejected a petition for a referendum on secession, Smith devised wording to get around the ruling and pressed ahead with the vote. In the process, the premier and her party suffered a setback as their approval ratings fell.
Businesspeople have also voiced concern. According to a Calgary Chamber of Commerce survey, nearly half said they would consider leaving Alberta if it pursued secession. There were widespread fears of a repeat of the “corporate exodus” during Quebec’s independence movement, when corporate headquarters left Montreal for Toronto en masse.
Election officials said the vote was held amid strong public interest, with early-voting turnout reaching 43%—well above the 28% turnout in the 2023 provincial election. The ballot also included votes on nine other proposals, including expanding the provincial government’s authority to control immigration.

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