14 Days to the Midterms: Trump Goes All Out to Woo Farmers as Even GOP Strongholds Waver

【Financial News, New York = Correspondent Lee Byung-cheol】  With two weeks to go before the U.S. midterm elections, President Donald Trump has set out to court voters in the agricultural regions of the Midwest, a traditional Republican stronghold. As surging diesel and fertilizer prices increase the financial burden on farms, analysts say Democrats are better positioned than Republicans to secure a majority in the House. With Republican-held districts making up at least 70% of all competitive races, economic discontent in agricultural regions is emerging as a major factor in the final stretch of the campaign.

After campaigning for Republican candidates in Kansas on the 19th (local time), President Trump is scheduled to visit Sioux City, Iowa, on the 22nd. Vice President JD Vance will also campaign that day in North Platte, Nebraska. With just two weeks until the midterms, the president and vice president are making a concerted push in three Midwestern states where agriculture plays a major role.
Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska have traditionally been Republican strongholds. All six of the three states’ current U.S. senators are Republicans. Republicans also hold all four House seats in Iowa and all three in Nebraska, as well as three of Kansas’s four seats. In total, Republicans hold 16 of the 17 U.S. Senate and House seats across the three states. President Trump also won all three states in the 2024 presidential election.
But economic discontent has been growing recently amid rising agricultural production costs, tariff policies and soaring energy prices resulting from the war in Iran. According to the Associated Press, the average U.S. diesel price was $6.30 a gallon on the 16th, at least 70% higher than a year earlier. Farmers heading into the fall harvest season are shouldering the full cost of the fuel needed to run farm machinery and transport crops.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that net farm income would fall 2.6% this year from the previous year, while production costs would rise 4.5%. Fuel and petroleum-related costs were expected to surge by about 30%. Analysts say rising fertilizer and seed prices are also squeezing farm profitability.
Glenn Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, told the Associated Press, “It feels like pressure is coming from all sides,” describing the difficulties farmers are facing. He said farmers’ economic discontent would not necessarily translate into support for Democrats, but expressed concern that it could dampen turnout among farmers who support Republicans.
At a rally in Kansas on the 19th, President Trump announced a new $8 billion harvest-season fuel assistance program to ease farmers’ diesel costs. Earlier, during a visit to Nebraska on the 5th, he also signed an executive order easing restrictions on the use of tax-exempt diesel for agricultural purposes. Policy announcements and campaign rallies aimed at easing economic discontent in agricultural regions have been coming in quick succession.

As economic discontent in Midwestern agricultural regions draws attention, a substantial number of competitive House districts that Republican incumbents must defend have emerged nationwide.
According to the Cook Political Report’s House race ratings on the 19th, of the 435 seats, 185 were rated solid Democratic and 17 likely Democratic. Republicans were rated solid in 171 seats and likely to win in 16.
That puts 202 seats in the safe column for Democrats and 187 for Republicans. To reach the 218 seats needed for a House majority, Democrats must gain 16 more seats, while Republicans need 31.
Of particular note is the distribution of incumbents in the 46 districts contested by both parties. Republican incumbents hold 34 of them (74%), while 12 are held by Democratic incumbents. Republicans therefore have far more districts to defend than Democrats.
The 46 competitive districts comprise 13 favoring Republicans, 12 favoring Democrats and 21 toss-ups in which the parties are evenly matched. Democrats can win a House majority by securing 16 of these districts, while Republicans need 31.
Republicans are also facing a growing burden in defending districts in Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska, which President Trump and Vice President JD Vance are visiting intensively in the campaign’s final stretch. The Cook Political Report shifted Kansas’s 2nd District, represented by Derek Schmidt, and Nebraska’s 1st District, represented by Mike Flood, from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” In Iowa, the 1st and 3rd districts, both held by Republican incumbents, moved from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.”
The Washington Post (WP) wrote on the 19th, “As the midterms approach, the political environment appears to be becoming increasingly favorable for Democrats and bleak for Republicans.” It noted in particular that even districts once expected to be safe Republican wins are becoming competitive.


[email protected] Correspondent Lee Byung-cheol Reporter