Analyst who called for “Samsung at 70,000 won, Hynix at 200,000 won” issues another grim forecast: “A bubble that will vanish like a mirage”—why?

[Financial News] The day after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares plunged, Lee Ju-wan, an industry analyst who made headlines by putting their fair values at 70,000 won and 200,000 won, respectively, reiterated his view that they are “still in overvalued territory.”

Appearing on YTN Radio’s “Cho Tae-hyun’s Lively Economy” on the 16th, the analyst was asked by the host about the “70,000-won Samsung, 200,000-won Hynix” forecast becoming a “pilgrimage site.” “What I find puzzling, too, is that I’ve been talking about ‘70,000-won Samsung’ and ‘200,000-won Hynix’ for a year,” he said, reiterating his position: “Both companies are still in overvalued territory.”
He pointed out that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have price-to-book ratios (PBRs) of 2.52 and 3.43, respectively, and explained: “It was quiet at the time, so it’s puzzling that this has become a topic only now. Even factoring in future earnings improvements, their PBRs will remain high.”

The analyst drew a distinction between the recent surge in semiconductor companies’ earnings and Nvidia’s case. “There hasn’t been any increase in volume at all; only prices have risen, and prices can’t keep going up forever,” he said. “Nvidia’s volume increased more than tenfold, whereas memory prices alone surged about tenfold.”
He continued: “Prices inevitably return to normal when supply normalizes, which means memory prices will go back to where they were before April last year. Then they’ll be back in the red, and in a year or two earnings will certainly shrink to a level where losses become a concern,” he warned.
He added: “The current rise in share prices is a bubble resting on earnings that will disappear like a sandcastle, like a mirage.”
He was also pessimistic about the KOSPI. “I think another range-bound market may form around the 5,000–5,500 level,” he said. “I cautiously predict that, after some time, we may see a pattern of the market falling again for a while.”
He added: “I don’t think you should view this as a full-fledged rebound. The decline was so rapid that there may be a period of range-bound trading to allow the pace to catch up.”

On a broadcast on the 8th, when asked for fair share prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the analyst replied 70,000 won and 200,000 won, respectively. He said the stock-price gains were “entirely driven by a price bubble” and explained that the earnings would disappear “like a sandcastle, like a mirage,” making them unsustainable.
The hosts were taken aback, and a brief silence followed. When asked why he would deliberately choose such a difficult path, he also replied: “Not once in the past 10 years has one of my predictions been wrong.”
The analyst’s forecast was discussed again among retail investors after Samsung Electronics plunged 9.48% and SK Hynix fell 11.06% on the 15th, closing at 210,000 won and 1,262,000 won, respectively.


[email protected] Seong Min-seo Reporter