New York Fed: “Trump tariffs raised consumer-goods prices by 2.9 percentage points”

[Financial News] An analysis has found that U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist tariff policies drove up consumer-goods prices in the United States last year and early this year. It also forecast that, without Trump's tariffs over the same period, prices for these goods would instead have fallen by about 1%.
According to U.S. media reports on the 8th (local time), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) released a report with these findings on the 6th.
The New York Fed analyzed 67 consumer-goods categories and found that, as of February this year, their price levels were 2.9 percentage points higher than during the period when there were no tariffs. In other words, tariffs imposed from last year through this year were reflected in the prices actually paid by U.S. consumers.
The researchers found that a 1-percentage-point increase in the average tariff rate leads to an approximately 0.25% rise in consumer-goods prices about a year later. In other words, the impact of tariff increases is not reflected in prices immediately, but emerges after a lag.
The New York Fed therefore estimated that about 26% of last year's tariff increases were ultimately passed on to consumer prices. This differs from President Trump’s repeated claim that businesses would absorb the additional costs from tariffs rather than pass them on to consumers.
The impact of President Trump's tariff policies was not limited to direct increases in the prices of imported goods.
The researchers found that two-thirds of the tariff-related price increases were a direct effect of the tariffs themselves. They said the rest resulted from indirect effects, as U.S. companies faced higher costs when using imported parts and raw materials. They added, “Tariffs have a larger and longer-lasting impact on consumer prices than would be expected from their direct effects alone.”
The researchers found that the annual rate of increase in U.S. consumer-goods prices peaked in early 2026. However, the higher price levels caused by tariffs are expected to persist for some time. They projected that the high prices consumers face as a result of tariff policies would continue through 2027.
[email protected] Kim Hyeong-gu Reporter