Digital X publishes report analyzing prediction market accuracy: “22 correct calls on interest rates”

[Financial News] Mirae Asset’s digital asset investment platform Digital X (formerly Korbit) has published a report finding that prediction market accuracy varies depending on the type of event and when it is observed.
According to the digital asset industry on the 8th, the Digital X Research Center has published a report titled “Prediction Markets: Between Gambling and Finance,” analyzing the structure and regulation of prediction markets and their actual predictive performance. Using publicly available data from prediction market platform Polymarket, the report compared prediction prices with actual outcomes across about 2,870 markets, including U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decisions, economic indicators, elections and geopolitical events related to Iran.
The analysis found that interest rate predictions with the highest probability on the day before an FOMC meeting matched the actual outcome all 22 times. The Brier scores, which measure prediction error in election-related markets, showed little difference: 0.069 the day before and 0.073 30 days before. By contrast, the error for geopolitical events related to Iran widened from 0.061 the day before to 0.113 30 days before. A lower Brier score indicates greater prediction accuracy.
The report noted that prediction accuracy needs to be distinguished from the integrity of trading. Trading based on inside information can improve prediction accuracy, but may be unfair to other participants, it explained. It also pointed out that actual payout outcomes may vary depending on how contract wording is interpreted or how settlement procedures are handled.
Jeong Ji-seong, a research fellow at Digital X Research, said, “To assess a prediction market accurately, we first need to check what is being traded in that market, what information prices contain, and when that information fails.” He added, “When citing real-time probabilities from prediction markets, we should also consider the type of event, when it is observed, and whether public information that could be reflected in the price is available.”
Meanwhile, the Digital X Research Center published a report last July titled “Perpetual Futures: Beyond the Digital Asset Market to RWA.” The report noted that perpetual futures based on domestic stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are traded overseas, but fall outside the regulatory scope of South Korea’s Capital Markets Act.

[email protected] Sang-hyeok Lim Reporter