“China to maintain average annual growth of 3% over the next 15 years... Advanced tech innovation to drive growth” [Lee Seok-woo’s China 24]

[Financial News] “China will maintain average annual growth of around 3% over the next 15 years, with advanced technological innovation driving growth.”
In the “China 2040 Outlook Report,” released on the 6th, Singapore Development Bank (DBS Bank) forecast that “the upside potential of the Chinese economy will exceed its downside risks.”
It also described the next stage of China’s development as promising, saying, “China will combine the three factors of talent, energy and manufacturing to maintain a leading position in advanced technology research and continue shifting from quantitative to qualitative growth.” Growth could reach 4% if advances in technological capabilities have a significant impact, and China plans to integrate AI into 90% of economic activity during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030).


On the 7th, Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao and other outlets reported that Dr. Zhi Mo, DBS’s chief economist for China and Hong Kong, had predicted at a discussion held the previous day that U.S.-China relations would remain generally relatively stable for at least the next year or so.
Dr. Zhi Mo noted that China had leverage, outperforming the U.S. in 66 of 74 key technologies, leaving the U.S. in a position where it needed to make concessions. He forecast that U.S.-China relations would remain generally relatively stable over the coming year for this and other reasons.
Ahead of the “third Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting,” set to take place in Shenzhen, China, in November in connection with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, and the “fourth Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting,” planned for December in Miami, U.S., in connection with the Group of Twenty (G20) summit, he stressed that “China holds far more cards than the U.S. in key areas of the bilateral relationship.”
Dr. Zhi Mo said China’s first card was undoubtedly critical materials, including rare earths, needed by advanced industries. These materials are vital to U.S. defense, electronics and clean-technology supply chains. He assessed that “this is the most important factor, and the U.S. will find it difficult to find alternatives in the short term.”
He noted that China’s second card was its position as a major importer of agricultural products, which could influence the voting preferences of President Donald Trump’s support base. As a third card, he pointed to U.S. Treasury bonds, whose yields have risen sharply. China holds at least $700 billion (about 938 trillion won) in U.S. Treasury bonds and could put pressure on the U.S. by wielding their sale as a tool.

Finally, he also identified the manufacturing base as a key card. He said, “China’s manufacturing has already moved beyond old-style manufacturing and developed into manufacturing that combines advanced and high-end technologies. Supply chains for this advanced manufacturing are very deep and broad, and are having a tangible impact on U.S. industries that depend on Chinese-made raw materials and components.”
Dr. Zhi Mo noted that China had surpassed the U.S. in only three of 63 key technology fields from 2003 to 2007, but had overtaken it in 66 of 74 fields from 2020 to 2025. He added that China leads in energy and the environment, advanced materials and manufacturing, advanced information and communications technology, and artificial intelligence (AI), and is building a monopoly position in some fields.
He said, “In the past, ‘Made in China’ became ‘Intelligent Manufacturing in China,’ and now it has developed into ‘Created in China.’”
Dr. Zhi Mo said China’s GDP growth over the next 15 years would average 3%, below the Chinese government’s annual economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%, and attributed the slowdown to weaker capital accumulation and a shrinking workforce. He also cited an aging population and a slump in the property market as causes of slower growth.
In 2021, the Chinese government set a target of doubling economic output by 2035 compared with 2020. To achieve this goal, real GDP would need to grow by an average of about 4.7% a year over the next 15 years. Actual annual GDP growth during this period is expected to range from 2% to 4%.

[email protected] Lee Seok-woo, International Affairs Specialist Reporter