U.S. Treasury Yields Rebound as Markets Focus on FOMC Minutes
- Input
- 2026-10-06 02:36:33
- Updated
- 2026-10-06 02:36:33
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board on the 5th (local time), halting last week's sharp decline and turning higher.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.064 percentage point to 5.341%. The 30-year yield, a benchmark for long-term rates, also jumped 0.068 percentage point to 5.698%.
The two-year yield, which reflects the market's outlook for Fed interest-rate policy, rose 0.027 percentage point to 4.852%.
A September services index released that morning by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) pushed Treasury yields higher.
The ISM services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for September came in at 54.9, down slightly from August but broadly in line with market expectations. The problem was the price index.
The September services price index jumped 1.4 points to 74.0, its highest level since July 2022. Respondents said rising fuel costs were the main factor behind the increase. Tariffs and supply-chain disruptions were also cited as factors driving up costs.
Another factor affecting Treasury yield movements is the Fed's FOMC minutes, due to be released on the 7th. The minutes will reveal what was actually discussed at the FOMC meeting held on Sept. 15-16, when the policy rate was raised by 0.25 percentage point. The tone of that meeting will be one of the key factors determining whether the Fed delivers another rate hike at its FOMC meeting on the 27th-28th.
According to CME Group's CME FedWatch Tool on the day, markets saw only a 23.8% probability of another rate hike this month. However, if the tone of that meeting was uniformly hawkish, the possibility of an additional hike could not be ruled out.
Experts said the possibility of an unusual rate hike ahead of the November midterm elections had diminished after data released last week showed that the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index had slowed and employment data for September was weak.
Meanwhile, after initially showing mixed trading because of the rebound in Treasury yields, the New York stock market turned higher across the board in afternoon trading, led by gains in technology shares. The three major indexes all moved higher.
[email protected] Song Kyung-jae Reporter