Will October Bring the Beloved 'Uptober' Rally? Optimism vs. Caution Remain Neck and Neck [Weekly Crypto Briefing]

[Financial News] Bitcoin, which has settled in the mid-$80,000s, is drawing attention over whether it can continue its rally in October. For now, bullish and cautious views remain evenly split.
 According to global virtual asset information platform CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin stood at $86,592 as of 11 a.m. that day, equivalent to approximately KRW 116.42 million. It was up 2.22% from the previous day and 2.08% from a week earlier, based on 24-hour and one-week comparisons, respectively.
Bitcoin rose 6.33% over the past month. Its monthly gain reached 7.33% at one point, surpassing the 7.29% recorded in September 2024, but it gave back part of that advance as the month-end correction set in. It also posted a positive return during the traditionally weak period known as 'Red September,' or the September downturn.
Shim Subin, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, analyzed the market, saying, "Investor sentiment recovered on the back of falling oil prices at the end of last month and a U.S. August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reading that came in below expectations, pushing Bitcoin into the mid-$80,000s." Shim added, "The resumption of Strategy's Bitcoin purchases is also believed to have had a positive impact on investor sentiment."
Recently, Strategy, the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has been buying Bitcoin. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings show that Strategy purchased 1,665 Bitcoin for a total of $142.7 million, or approximately KRW 199.3 billion, between the 21st and 27th of last month. The average purchase price was $85,681.
The market is debating whether 'Uptober,' a bullish October market, will become a reality. October is traditionally considered a strong month in the Bitcoin market. According to crypto asset data analysis firm Coinglass, Bitcoin's average return in October since 2017 has been 16.75%, higher than its gains in other months.
The outlook among Korean investors remains evenly split. According to a regular weekly survey of domestic investor market sentiment jointly conducted by CoinNess and Kratos, 35.9% of respondents expected Bitcoin to rise or surge the following week. Another 32.4% anticipated range-bound trading, while 31.7% expected a decline or sharp drop.
When asked whether 'Uptober' would remain valid this year, the largest share of respondents, 38.7%, said, "Uptober remains valid, and the rally will resume." However, negative responses totaled 41.4%. Of the respondents, 24.1% predicted, "The cycle has broken, so Uptober will not come," while 17.3% said, "Uptober is nonsensical to begin with." The remaining 19.9% answered, "I don't know."
In fact, blockchain data analysis firm Glassnode said in a weekly report released on September 30 that Bitcoin was being capped by sell orders in the $85,000-$85,500 range. This suggests that even if the price rises, the rally could be difficult to sustain unless trading participation increases sufficiently.
Experts generally agreed that the market outlook was positive, but that Uptober was not guaranteed. Ilya Kalchev, a researcher at crypto asset management platform Nexo, said, "If U.S. inflation continues to slow and the labor market remains moderately stable, the likelihood of the Fed holding interest rates steady will increase, potentially providing upward momentum for Bitcoin, but Uptober is not guaranteed." He added, "Even if seasonal effects draw attention, macroeconomic conditions, spot demand and holders' conviction must support an actual rally."
[email protected] Han Young-jun Reporter