Samsung Electronics: Who Cares If It Misses Out on Dividends? Will Buying Interest Return If It Hits '100 Trillion Won'? [Why the Stock Market]

[Financial News] Samsung Electronics' stock price rebounded after going ex-dividend, raising attention over whether its third-quarter earnings announcement will trigger further gains. Brokerage firms forecast that quarterly operating profit will exceed 100 trillion won. They maintained Buy ratings despite lowering their earnings estimates due to exchange-rate effects, citing rising memory demand and shareholder returns.
According to the Korea Exchange (KRX) on the 5th, Samsung Electronics closed at 276,000 won on the 2nd, 23.9% below the closing high of 362,500 won recorded on June 18. During the same period, its common-stock market capitalization fell from about 2,119 trillion won to 1,614 trillion won, a decrease of approximately 506 trillion won.
Samsung Electronics' stock price fell to 207,000 won on July 30 after reaching its June high. The decline during that period was 42.9%. It subsequently rebounded 33.3% from the low through the 2nd.
The range of recent price fluctuations has narrowed. The difference between the highest and lowest monthly market capitalizations, based on closing prices, narrowed from approximately 649 trillion won in July to 301 trillion won in August and 216 trillion won in September. The stock rose 6.2%, from 260,000 won at the end of August to 276,000 won on the 2nd.
Samsung Electronics fell 5.43% on September 28, the day before the ex-dividend date, closing at 270,000 won. By contrast, it rose 0.93% to 272,500 won on the 29th, the ex-dividend date. Its closing price on the 2nd was 2.2% higher than immediately before the ex-dividend date.
A securities industry official said, "Since the sharp drop occurred while the right to receive the dividend was still in effect, it is difficult to explain it as a mechanical price adjustment caused by the ex-dividend date. Although it is positive that the price held up after the ex-dividend date, it is too early to determine whether the trend has reversed, as only four trading days have passed."
With Samsung Electronics' stock recovery remaining sluggish, brokerage firms are forecasting that quarterly operating profit will exceed 100 trillion won for the first time. Samsung Securities estimated third-quarter operating profit at approximately 104.9 trillion won, while NH Investment & Securities put the figure at about 105.2 trillion won. Hana Securities also forecast approximately 108 trillion won.
NH Investment & Securities forecast that memory demand will increase as AI investment expands and AI agent services become more widespread. The firm analyzed that investment, which had been concentrated among large cloud companies, is expanding to ordinary businesses and countries.
It also assumed that Samsung Electronics' average selling price for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) would rise 45% next year, saying that the increase may need to be set higher in light of recent demand. The firm maintained its Buy rating and target price of 530,000 won.
Ryu Young-ho, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "Even after reflecting recent exchange rates, we expect positive earnings to continue, supported by solid memory industry conditions."
Some analysts also said that recent downward revisions to earnings estimates need to be viewed separately from the industry outlook. Hana Securities lowered its won-dollar exchange-rate assumption for the third quarter from 1,500 won to 1,415 won, reducing its earnings forecast. It also adjusted its exchange-rate forecast for next year from 1,458 won to 1,340 won, but maintained its previous assumptions for memory prices and shipment volumes.
Kim Rok-ho, an analyst at Hana Securities, explained, "The existing forecasts for memory volume and prices, which are the core of the fundamentals, remain unchanged. It should be remembered that the earnings estimate was revised solely because of the exchange rate."
Shareholder returns are another variable that could connect higher profits to a revaluation of the company's value. Samsung Electronics plans to pay approximately 30 trillion won in cash dividends in the third quarter, including its regular dividend. The specific details will be finalized at a board meeting at the end of October. Samsung Securities expects next year's shareholder-return resources to total approximately 160 trillion won, with about 60 trillion won of that amount expected to be used for share buybacks and cancellations.
Lee Jong-wook, an analyst at Samsung Securities, analyzed, "NVIDIA and TSMC have already shown that consecutive earnings growth can lead to stock-price gains even without an eye-catching catalyst. Investors' conventional strategy of approaching memory only as a momentum play is making Samsung Electronics' stock even more attractive."

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