Tesla's Third-Quarter Deliveries Beat Expectations: "Looks Like We Have Emerged from the EV Winter"

[Financial News]  

Tesla's stock surged more than 5% on the 2nd (local time), following better-than-expected third-quarter delivery figures released that day. Morgan Stanley said Tesla may have "emerged from the EV winter."

Tesla announced that it produced 464,391 vehicles and delivered 486,532 in the third quarter.
Deliveries fell about 2% from the 497,099 vehicles delivered during the same period last year, but exceeded the previous quarter's 480,126. They also easily surpassed the market forecast of 461,100 and Tesla's own estimate of 461,974, announced on September 29.
Tesla did not provide separate statistics by model or region, but said the base Tesla Model 3 sedan and its best-selling Tesla Model Y SUV accounted for 98% of total deliveries.
Tesla has been struggling as Chinese EV makers such as BYD and Xiaomi make gains. They are introducing more affordable and innovative electric vehicles. In addition, consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk's political views and the fallout from the Donald Trump administration's shift toward internal-combustion-engine vehicles have combined to keep annual sales in decline.
Although the stock rose more than 5% that day, it is down 21% for the year as a whole. It is the worst performer among Big Tech stocks.

Still, cautious optimism is emerging that the worst may be over.
Morgan Stanley analysts said in an analysis note that Tesla "may be emerging from the EV winter."
If Tesla delivers at least 311,448 vehicles this quarter, its full-year deliveries could exceed 1.64 million, surpassing the previous year's total.
Unlike Morgan Stanley, which has a "Hold (Neutral)" rating, RBC, which recommends "Outperform (Buy)," called Tesla's delivery results "impressive" that day. In an analysis note, RBC said that in Europe, "fuel cost increases associated with the Iran war and regulatory pressure could stimulate demand for electric vehicles." It expects Tesla and its Chinese rivals to benefit as a result this year. RBC also forecast that Tesla's energy business "will benefit from an AI-driven increase in electricity demand."

Tesla said its energy division shipped 13.7 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage systems, including Tesla Megapack and Megablock systems, in the third quarter. That exceeded both the 12.5 GWh recorded during the same period last year and the 13.5 GWh shipped in the second quarter.
Tesla Megapack is a large-scale energy storage system for businesses, while Megablock consists of four Megapacks and one transformer. Using lithium-ion and other batteries, the systems serve as emergency power supplies for data centers and utilities in the event of power outages.
Tesla will release its third-quarter results after the market closes on the 21st.

Meanwhile, although Tesla's EV deliveries continue to decline year over year, global demand for electric vehicles is rising. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global EV demand remains solid this year, particularly noting that EVs are also benefiting indirectly as fuel costs rise because of the Iran war.
According to the IEA, the share of battery-electric vehicles and hybrids in the global new-vehicle market rose sharply from less than 5% in 2020 to around 25% last year.

[email protected] Song Kyung-jae Reporter