Jeju's Older Population at 20.0%... to Surpass the National Level at 40.9% in 2052

[Financial News, Jeju = Reporter Jung Yong-bok] One in five Jeju residents is estimated to be aged 65 or over. Although Jeju’s current share of older residents is below the national average, it is projected to rise to 40.9% by 2052, meaning more than four in 10 residents will be older adults.
According to the 2026 Statistics on Older Persons released by the National Data Office on the 1st, Jeju Province’s population aged 65 and over is projected to total 135,000 this year, accounting for 20.0% of the total population.
A 20% share of the older population is commonly used as the threshold for classifying a society as super-aged. Based on Jeju’s population projections, the province is expected to reach that threshold this year.
■ Lower than the national level now, but the gap will disappear

Nationwide, 11.125 million people are aged 65 and over this year, accounting for 21.6% of the total population. Jeju Province’s figure is 1.6 percentage points lower than the national average.
Among the 17 cities and provinces, South Jeolla Province has the highest share of older residents at 28.6%. It is followed by Gyeongsangbuk-do at 27.6%, Gangwon State at 27.1%, North Jeolla Province at 26.7%, and Busan at 25.9%.
Jeju Province ranks 11th among the 17 cities and provinces, at 20.0%. Sejong City has the lowest share at 12.3%, followed by Gyeonggi Province at 18.1%, Gwangju at 19.1%, and Incheon and Ulsan at 19.4%; all are lower than Jeju Province.
Jeju Province is currently relatively younger than the national average, but this gap will nearly disappear over the long term.
In 2028, Jeju Province’s older population is projected to grow to 149,000, with its share rising to 21.9%. By 2038, the figures are expected to reach 213,000 and 31.5%, respectively. The national share is projected to be 32.7% that year.
By 2052, Jeju Province’s older population is projected to reach 263,000, accounting for 40.9% of the population. This would be 0.1 percentage points higher than the projected national share of 40.8%.
Given that the gap between Jeju Province and the nation in the share of older residents is 1.6 percentage points this year, the two figures will effectively converge to the same level in 26 years.
■ From 135,000 to 263,000... The absolute population will also surge

What deserves greater attention in Jeju is the absolute size of the older population. The number of residents aged 65 and over, currently 135,000, is projected to increase to 149,000 in 2028, 213,000 in 2038, and 263,000 in 2052.
Compared with this year, the older population will increase by 128,000, or approximately 95%, by 2052. This means that while the share of older residents rises by 20.9 percentage points, from 20.0% to 40.9%, the actual population targeted by related policies will also nearly double.
That is why population aging cannot be viewed simply as a problem of the proportion of older people growing within the total population.
In many cases, the actual number of users, rather than the proportion of the population, determines the scale of services such as healthcare, long-term care, care workers, age-friendly housing, public transportation and mobility assistance, and jobs for older adults.
In a region such as Jeju Province, where eup- and myeon-level areas and island areas are widely dispersed, a long-term challenge will be ensuring access to healthcare and care services in each region as the older population grows.
■ Nationwide share to reach 30% in 2036... Dependency structure changing rapidly

The nation’s demographic structure is also changing rapidly. The national share of older residents is projected to rise from 21.6% this year to 30.9% in 2036 and 40.1% in 2050.
The old-age dependency ratio, which represents the number of people aged 65 and over supported by 100 working-age people aged 15 to 64, is projected to rise from 31.3 this year to 50.1 in 2036 and 100.8 in 2066.
At present, there are about 31 older people for every 100 working-age people. Over the long term, however, the demographic structure is projected to shift toward the two groups becoming similar in size.
Jeju Province is no exception to this trend. Its share of older residents is currently 1.6 percentage points below the national level, which may suggest that it has relatively more time to prepare, but it will catch up with the national level by 2052. Moreover, during the same period, the actual older population will increase from 135,000 to 263,000.
How early Jeju adjusts the supply of healthcare and care services, housing and transportation, and jobs to projected population changes will determine the province’s living environment 20 to 30 years from now.


[email protected] Jung Yong-bok Reporter