"Samsung Electronics at KRW 630,000, SK hynix at KRW 3.1 million"—Brokerage firms successively raise target prices

[Financial News] The combined third-quarter operating profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have surpassed KRW 188 trillion, prompting South Korean securities firms to successively raise their target prices for the two companies. Expectations that a memory supply shortage and demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) will persist are also cited as factors boosting expectations for earnings and stock prices.
As of the 30th, according to financial information provider FnGuide, Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit consensus estimate—the average forecast from securities firms—stood at KRW 110.2803 trillion. That is 806% higher than the KRW 12.1661 trillion recorded in the third quarter of last year and 23% above the KRW 89.4924 trillion reported in the previous quarter. If the forecast materializes, Samsung Electronics' quarterly operating profit will exceed KRW 100 trillion for the first time.
SK hynix is also expected to post its highest quarterly operating profit on record. Its third-quarter operating profit consensus estimate is KRW 78.0577 trillion, up 29% from KRW 60.5426 trillion in the previous quarter. Combined, the forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix total KRW 188.3380 trillion, bringing them close to KRW 200 trillion.
However, concerns about a "semiconductor peak-out" are also emerging, citing a slowdown in artificial-intelligence infrastructure investment by global big-tech companies. No clear signs have yet emerged that the AI industry or semiconductor demand has slowed significantly. Some forecasts also suggest that the memory shortage will persist as demand for HBM for AI servers continues.
Memory prices may also rise further amid the supply shortage. Market research firm TrendForce expects conventional DRAM prices to increase by 13–18% from the previous quarter in the third quarter, while NAND flash prices are projected to rise by 10–15%. Although the rate of increase is lower than in the immediately preceding quarter, expectations for a larger share of sixth-generation HBM4 and improved yields continue.
South Korean securities firms have also successively raised their target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Mirae Asset Securities raised Samsung Electronics' target price from KRW 370,000 to KRW 400,000 this month, while Yuanta Securities Korea lifted it from KRW 530,000 to KRW 630,000 on the 23rd. For SK hynix, DB Securities raised its target price from KRW 2 million to KRW 2.3 million, and Mirae Asset Securities adjusted it from KRW 2.8 million to KRW 3.1 million.
Against this backdrop, Micron Technology's fiscal fourth-quarter results for June through August, due to be announced on the 30th local time, are regarded as a factor that could help gauge the future direction of the memory industry. The period overlaps by two months with the third quarter—July through September—of South Korean semiconductor companies. If the rise in selling prices slows and profit margins decline, concerns about a peak-out could intensify. However, if revenue guidance and profit margins exceed market expectations, anxiety over the semiconductor industry's outlook could ease.
Apart from semiconductor industry conditions, United States long-term Treasury yields and international oil prices remain key variables. In the New York bond market on the 29th local time, the yield on the United States' 10-year Treasury note rose as high as 5.266%, its highest level in 19 years since June 2007. International oil prices are also rising amid concerns over supply disruptions stemming from instability in the Middle East. 
[email protected] Han Seung-gon Reporter