Hormuz oil transport estimated to recover to approximately 80% of pre-war levels

[Financial News] Oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for about 25% of global offshore oil shipments before the outbreak of the war with IRAN this year, is gradually returning to pre-war levels. The average daily volume of shipments passing through the strait has recovered to about 80%.
The Wall Street Journal reported this on the 28th (local time), citing ship-tracking data from the multinational maritime information platform Kpler. The Wall Street Journal stated that the volume of oil exports passing through the Strait of Hormuz this month was the largest since the outbreak of the IRAN war in late February, but was slightly below 80% of pre-war levels. In this regard, Nihon Keizai Shimbun also reported on the 28th, citing Kpler, that the average daily volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz this month was 9.36 million barrels, an increase of 3.56 million barrels from August. This figure represents approximately 60% of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, when the average was 15 million barrels per day.
In addition, citing the European ship-tracking platform Huax, The Wall Street Journal reported that crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), rebounded to an average of nearly 13 million barrels per day in September. These countries bordering the Persian Gulf relied on maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz for a significant portion of their exports. In February, just before the outbreak of the war, they exported an average of 19 million barrels of crude oil per day.
However, IRAN, which declared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz last July, is facing difficulties exporting oil due to interference by the United States. As soon as IRAN declared the blockade, the United States mobilized naval forces in the strait and off the IRANian coast to block the entry and exit of IRANian and IRAN-related vessels.
Kpler reported that the IRANian crude oil loaded on tankers operating outside the United States blockade line amounted to 29 million barrels in early September but had fallen to 15 million barrels by the end of September, and forecast that it would be depleted by early or mid-October.
Most IRANian crude oil is exported to China. The maximum amount of crude oil that IRAN can transport by truck rather than by ship is only 40,000 barrels per day. Before the war, IRAN's crude oil exports averaged about 2 million barrels per day. Earlier, United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox News on the 27th, "They will probably make their last oil delivery to China within the next two weeks, and after that there will be nothing left."
Experts assessed that IRAN is losing control of the Strait of Hormuz and, with its oil exports blocked, has been placed at a disadvantage in negotiations to end the war with the United States. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, a British think tank, described the current situation as "showing that IRAN's strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly ineffective." She added, "To escape this predicament, IRAN may have to provoke an incident itself or pull the trigger on a larger conflict, potentially leading to a more explosive phase." According to The Wall Street Journal, IRAN's attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz have remained subdued for several days since the latest attack on the 23rd.
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