Netanyahu, Who Ignored Intelligence on the 'Hamas Surprise Attack,' Will Still Win the Election(?)

[Financial News]  

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushed into a political crisis ahead of a close election. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) warned on October 7, 2023 (local time) that Hamas in the Gaza Strip might launch a surprise attack on Israel, but Netanyahu dismissed the warnings, resulting in a catastrophe. Calls for him to be held responsible are gaining ground. However, this is not the first controversy to surround him, and some analysts say its impact on the election race will be limited.
The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 28th that Netanyahu's coalition government was facing a crisis in a close election race as the opposition launched harsh criticism over the issue.
Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Party for Democracy, posted a video on social media of Netanyahu discussing the threat of a Hamas attack in June 2023. He then assailed the prime minister, saying, "You knew, but you ignored it. Netanyahu, you are responsible. This is your responsibility."
Avigdor Lieberman, who served as defense minister under Netanyahu, also joined the criticism. Lieberman, who leads the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Is Our Home) party, said he had warned the prime minister as early as 2016 that Hamas could cross the border and attack Israel.
Netanyahu denies having previously received warnings about the Hamas surprise attack, which is regarded as the worst security failure in Israel's history. Instead, he has shifted the blame to the Israeli military and intelligence agencies.
However, various reports indicate that Netanyahu received warnings about a possible Hamas surprise attack well in advance.
According to Israel's longest-running newspaper, Haaretz, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan warned Netanyahu about the attack approximately 10 days before it took place. He reportedly told Netanyahu that Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's commander in the Gaza Strip, was planning a large-scale operation against Israel.
Netanyahu denied the report and threatened to sue the newspaper.
He also denied reports that Abbas Kamel, who headed Egypt's intelligence service at the time, had warned him about the Hamas surprise attack.
Despite his denials, the opposition's offensive is intensifying.
Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar (Right) party, which ranks first in most opinion polls, criticized Netanyahu on the 27th, saying he had "clearly betrayed the public's trust and evaded his duty." Speaking at an event in Tel Aviv for the families of victims of the Hamas surprise attack, which was broadcast throughout Israel, Eisenkot emphasized, "Netanyahu blindly, complacently and irresponsibly dragged the country of Israel into the worst disaster in its history."
An Arab diplomat said the reports about the leak of the information "mean that many in the region do not want Netanyahu to win this election."
However, some analysts say the controversy does not have enough force to actually overturn the election dynamics.
Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli polling expert and political analyst, predicted that the scale of the leak would limit its ability to change voters' attitudes toward Netanyahu. She noted that there had been numerous reports over the past three years about the failure to prevent the Hamas attack in advance, but most voters had already made up their minds by then.
Scheindlin said, "Those angry about the October 7 surprise attack already oppose him, while Netanyahu's supporters have a clear rationale that the security officials were responsible for what happened at the time."

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