"Will '300,000-won Samsung' Really Arrive After Chuseok?"... Why Foreign Investors Went All-In on Samsung Electronics [Money Signal]

[Financial News] The stock market can sometimes move with the suffocating tension of a baseball game in the bottom of the ninth, with two outs and the bases loaded. Just as a single pitch can determine the winner, one shift in buying and selling flows can redirect trillions of won.
Individual investors watching the Korean stock market have every reason to feel confused these days. Foreign investors are dumping SK hynix, which had long dominated the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market and served as the star of the semiconductor rally. By contrast, Samsung Electronics, long treated as a perennial 'chaser' and battered by disappointing stock performance, is experiencing a full-scale buying frenzy.
It took just three trading days. During that brief period, foreign investors bought 2.5 trillion won worth of Samsung Electronics shares. SK hynix, meanwhile, shifted to net selling. The gap in net buying and selling between the two stocks reached a staggering 5 trillion won.
The sums are too large to dismiss as a day or two of mere fickleness. What exactly are foreign investors seeing right now? We examined the facts behind this massive shift in investment flows.

At its core, the worlds of sports and stocks are no different. It is not 'what has already been achieved' but 'what investors expect to see next' that drives up value.
As the biggest beneficiary of the AI era, SK hynix seized the HBM market and has already sent both earnings and its stock price soaring. In other words, its expectations are already fully priced in. Samsung Electronics, meanwhile, has long been weighed down by the label of having fallen behind in the HBM race.
But foreign investors saw a possible reversal. If Samsung Electronics narrows the gap in the upcoming HBM4 market, it will gain a tremendous new source of upside that has not previously been reflected in its share price.
On top of that, a reliable scoring weapon is coming back to life: rising prices for 'commodity DRAM,' Samsung Electronics' traditional stronghold. Foreign smart money has responded to "the potential of the second-place player, which has nowhere to go but up, rather than the No. 1 player that has already risen sharply."


Samsung Electronics officially announced that its total shareholder returns this year will reach as much as 90 trillion to 110 trillion won. In the third quarter alone, approximately 30 trillion won in cash dividends, including the regular dividend, will be distributed.
Given that total dividends in the second quarter amounted to approximately 2.4 trillion won, this is truly an unprecedented 'cash bonanza.' There is no stronger defensive shield in the stock market than reliable cash dividends. As the late-October date for finalizing the exact dividend amount approaches, foreign investors' meticulous effort to secure this massive pool of cash is now showing up as a buying frenzy.

Buoyed by foreign investors' calls, Samsung Electronics' share price broke through the mid-280,000-won range in one leap. It is now just about 5% away from 300,000 won.
The phrase '300,000-won Samsung' has once again begun circulating among investors, while analysts are also fueling the mood with rosy price targets in the 600,000-won range.
But this is precisely when investors need to look coldly at the market screen. Some securities firms are still maintaining conservative price targets of around 350,000 won.
That is because of concerns that the exchange rate could fall faster than expected and that the rise in commodity DRAM prices could lose momentum.
The most important point to watch is what happens immediately after the share buyback ends. Samsung Electronics' 15 trillion won buyback, which is currently providing firm support for its share price, shows signs of ending earlier than expected. The key question is whether foreign investors will remain alone on the empty field after this massive 'big player' exits and continue pressing the buy button.
It is too early to get excited. Whether foreign investors' choice is merely portfolio rebalancing or the genuine return of global capital to Samsung Electronics will become clear from that moment onward. The real showdown has not yet begun.

[email protected] Jeon Sang-il Reporter