"Samsung Electronics at 280,000 Won" Settles In—Will It Break Above 290,000 Won After Chuseok?

[Financial News]  Samsung Electronics' share price entered the Chuseok holiday after recovering to the 280,000-won range. Although the KOSPI Composite Index has risen more often than not after Chuseok in the past, domestic and international variables during the holiday—including sharply higher U.S. Treasury yields—are seen as factors that could determine the market's direction afterward.
According to the Korea Exchange (KRX) on the 24th, Samsung Electronics closed at 285,500 won, up 3.28%, on the previous day, the last trading day before the Chuseok holiday.
SK hynix also rose 1.20%. With Samsung Electronics and SK hynix both advancing, the KOSPI Composite Index gained 0.90% to close at 7,080.92, holding above the 7,000 mark.

Samsung Electronics' share price fell to the 240,000-won range on the 14th of this month. Concerns raised by Anthropic and others about slowing the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) development, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the possibility of a Federal Reserve System (Fed) rate hike weighed on the stock. After rebounding, it rose more than 14% over seven trading days.
The rebound was driven by easing concerns over an AI peak and upward revisions by securities firms to their earnings forecasts for next year. The fact that U.S. Treasury yields fell after the Fed raised its key interest rate also affected Samsung Electronics' share price.
Institutional and foreign investors also continued buying ahead of Samsung Electronics' largest quarterly dividend ever.
Samsung Electronics announced that it would pay approximately 30 trillion won in cash dividends, including its regular third-quarter quarterly dividend. Since the record date is the 30th, investors must buy the shares by the 28th to receive the dividend.
Brokerages estimate that Samsung Electronics' dividend will be around 4,500 won per share. While individual investors moved to take profits, foreign investors who had been selling Samsung Electronics made net purchases for three consecutive trading days starting on the 21st.


With Samsung Electronics approaching the 290,000-won level, past movements in the domestic stock market after Chuseok are also drawing attention. An analysis of historical cases found that the KOSPI Composite Index rose after the holiday 68% of the time.
Daishin Securities' analysis of KOSPI Composite Index returns before and after the Chuseok holiday from 2004 to 2025 found that the index rose during the five trading days after the holiday in 15 of the 22 cases.
The average return over the five trading days immediately before the holiday was -0.05%. The KOSPI Composite Index rose in 11 of those periods, and in seven of them, the upward trend continued through the fifth trading day after the holiday.
There was also a difference in returns before and after the holiday when only the past five years were considered. From 2021 to 2025, the KOSPI Composite Index posted an average return of -0.82% during the five trading days before Chuseok, but rose by an average of 0.77% after the holiday.

Daishin Securities researcher Lee Kyung-min explained, "Looking at returns before and after the Chuseok holiday, there was a clear tendency for a 'weak-before, strong-after' pattern to emerge, with short-term returns higher after the holiday than before it."

However, there are many variables, making it difficult to expect a post-holiday rise based solely on historical statistics. Overnight, stocks on the New York Stock Exchange fell across the board as U.S. Treasury yields surged.
S&P Global's preliminary U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September exceeded market expectations, while Brent Crude Oil rose to $103 a barrel. As a result, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds climbed as high as 5.13% intraday, reaching its highest level since July 2007.
Major New York Stock Exchange indexes also weakened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.68%, the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.75%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.13%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) also fell 1.23%.
A summit between the leaders of the United States and China is also considered a variable that could affect the stock market after the holiday. 
Samsung Electronics' own supply-and-demand conditions remain another variable. Analysts say the stock's movement after the ex-dividend date and a potential supply-and-demand gap following the end of its share buyback program—which could conclude as early as the beginning of next month—could affect its share price after the holiday.


[email protected] Han Seung-gon Reporter