U.S. Researchers Warn of a Record El Niño: "450,000 Deaths Over Six Months"

[Financial News] Climate scientists have warned that more than 450,000 people worldwide could die over the next six months due to abnormally high temperatures caused by El Niño.
The Guardian reported on the 23rd (local time) that the Climate Impact Lab, a research organization based at the University of Chicago, estimated in a recent report that approximately 451,000 people worldwide will die from high temperatures caused by El Niño between September this year and February next year.
El Niño is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise above normal, affecting temperature and precipitation patterns.
On the 21st, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific, an indicator of El Niño's strength, reached a record high since observations began. As El Niño is expected to peak around the end of the year, its intensity could increase further.
The researchers analyzed that global temperatures could temporarily rise to levels expected 20 years from now because of this El Niño.
The projection of 450,000 deaths includes only those caused by the additional temperature increases driven by El Niño, separate from existing heatwave-related deaths. Additional deaths caused by droughts, wildfires and floods were not included.


The researchers forecast that heatwave deaths will continue from February, when temperatures can currently be predicted, through June or July next year.
Michael Greenstone, a professor at the University of Chicago and a co-author of the report, said, "The projected number of deaths is so large that it is difficult to grasp when viewed only as a figure, but each person is someone's parent, child, grandparent or neighbor."
Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are expected to suffer the heaviest losses over the next six months. Severe impacts are also anticipated in Africa's Sahel region and Southeast Asia.
The United States was also among the 20 countries expected to suffer the heaviest losses, with an estimated 3,500 additional deaths from heatwaves.
To reduce the damage, the researchers recommended strengthening heatwave forecasts, expanding cooling centers, increasing medical staffing during heatwaves and enhancing protections for outdoor workers.
The researchers calculated the death toll by analyzing the relationship between monthly temperatures and additional heatwave deaths across 24,378 regions worldwide, then combining the findings with projections of El Niño-related temperature increases. They used the monthly average number of heatwave deaths from 1996 through 2025 as the basis.
However, the report has not yet undergone peer review, in which experts in the same field verify the validity of the research methods and findings. The researchers plan to submit the report to an academic journal for peer review.
The researchers released their findings before completing the verification process. Professor Greenstone explained, "It would have been more irresponsible to keep the findings hidden without making them public."


[email protected] Lee Seok-woo, International Affairs Specialist Reporter