"Still Has Room to Double": Samsung Electronics Target Price Set at 560,000 Won; "The Cycle Will Expand Further" [Shareholder Club]

[Financial News]  Daishin Securities maintained its 'Buy' rating and target price of 560,000 won for Samsung Electronics, citing the strengthening sustainability of the semiconductor upcycle. The target price is more than double Samsung Electronics' closing price of 274,000 won on the 21st.

Hyungkeun Ryu, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said in a report on the 22nd, "The semiconductor cycle will expand further as the supply-demand gap widens, while competitiveness in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is also improving," adding, "As the industry outlook and technological competitiveness are aligning, investors should take a more positive approach to the stock."
Daishin Securities noted that many customers presented purchase volumes (TAM) above expectations during demand negotiations and the signing of long-term contracts last year. The intensifying competition among buyers seen in the second half of 2025 is highly likely to recur. Under current conditions, where production capacity (Capa) expansion is limited, this could drive short-term price increases.
Samsung Electronics' long-term contracts use a "Rolling Base" model, in which the contract term is extended by one year each year. This structure secures five years of total demand visibility and reduces cycle risk through flexible production-capacity management.
Ryu explained, "We estimate that discussions over volumes for 2031 are currently being fleshed out. Given that some customers are requesting 10-year contracts, we believe Samsung Electronics has likely successfully signed extension contracts with some of them."
The simultaneous improvement in the scale and quality of Samsung Electronics' HBM business has also boosted its competitiveness and prompted a positive assessment. Daishin Securities forecasts that Samsung Electronics will secure the top spot in HBM market share in 2027, citing its pricing advantage based on relatively low dependence on a single customer, the effectiveness of its aggressive pricing policy, and cost savings from the early improvement of yields in the DRAM 1c process.

Since the market response to the shareholder-return policy announced last month was somewhat lukewarm, Daishin Securities believes the company is likely considering a more aggressive approach to share buybacks and cancellations. Assuming that all remaining shareholder-return resources are paid out as special dividends, Daishin Securities estimated Samsung Electronics' 2026 dividend per share (DPS) at 13,014 won.
Ryu forecast, "The next shareholder-return policy for 2027–2029 is expected to be announced in January 2027," adding, "While shareholder returns in the memory semiconductor industry were previously one-off, continuity can now be expected through the reduction of cycle risk based on long-term contracts. This change could ultimately enhance corporate value."
[email protected] Kim Hee-seon Reporter