[Koo Bon-young Column] Warning Lights from Public Sentiment Calling for a Change in State Policy Direction

The ruling party is in a total crisis. President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating, which was once in the high 60% range, has plummeted to the 30% range just one year and three months after his inauguration. Even within the ruling party, warning signs have emerged, describing this as an "orange light just before a red light" (Rep. Lee Kwang-jae). What is the fundamental cause of the freefall in the President's approval rating that has continued for three months? It is likely that complex factors are at play that cannot be explained by a few policy failures, such as confusion in the real estate and stock markets.
First, let's look at the results of a survey by the Korea Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) released on the 16th. When asked which area President Lee is doing best, "none" was the most common response at 40.6%. This is a painful assessment for the current administration. Aren't economic indicators for the second year in power, such as exports and nominal growth rates, actually quite good? Nevertheless, public opinion reflects that this success is due not to the administration's achievements, but to the semiconductor boom supercycle driven by private companies like Samsung and SK Hynix. In other words, the majority of the public views this as a benefit that former President Yoon Suk-yeol could have enjoyed had he not staged that foolish self-destructive act of declaring martial law.
The stock market rally can outwardly be seen as an achievement of the current administration. Although the KOSPI index has fallen to around the 7,000 mark after surpassing 9,000, this is a massive figure compared to the 2,700 level at the start of the administration. However, a closer look reveals it to be an "empty shell." This is because the stock market has become a gambling arena focused on short-term trading, failing to contribute to the revitalization of real investment. While the misstep of introducing single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may have enriched securities firms, the majority of retail investors, excluding foreign investors, suffered significant losses. Ultimately, this "blind stock market boosting" also contributed to the plummeting approval ratings.
The failure of real estate policies is also a major factor in the plummeting approval rating. It was an overreach from the start to foreshadow punitive taxation even for non-resident single-home owners. The consequences of treating ordinary citizens as speculators simply for owning expensive homes were devastating. Far from curbing housing prices, the poorly designed real estate tax system caused rent and deposit prices to skyrocket, crushing the backs of the homeless working class. Consequently, recent polls (Realmeter) even showed the President's approval rating falling below 30% in Seoul.
From a political standpoint, the controversies surrounding the "withdrawal of indictment" and the "constitutional amendment for consecutive terms" also played a significant role in the plummeting approval ratings. Both are issues related to President Lee's retirement. While the former is an attempt to erase the President's legal risks after leaving office, the latter is a novel idea aimed at eliminating retirement itself. However, neither issue garnered public support. Obsessing over these matters merely gave the impression that the people's livelihoods were sidelined amidst controversies over the privatization of power. Even within the ruling party, criticism has emerged, stating, "As the controversy over the withdrawal of indictment and the constitutional amendment for consecutive terms erupted simultaneously, the public has reached a stage where they are withdrawing their trust" (Rep. Yoon Gun-young).
It is difficult to pinpoint just one or two reasons why the public’s view of the current government has turned cold. In a sense, it seems plausible to infer that strategic factors, such as the withdrawal of indictments or the push for constitutional amendments to allow for consecutive terms, have played a greater role than economic or livelihood instability. Look at the poll results showing the ruling party’s approval rating lagging behind the opposition ahead of the National Assembly hearing for Justice Minister nominee Kim Seung-won, who is embroiled in allegations of lobbying for bogus new drugs. This implies that the public has clearly recognized him as the representative of the "Group for Withdrawing Indictments Against the President."
Therefore, President Lee’s press conference on the 18th drew attention. Regarding a constitutional amendment for consecutive terms, he drew a clear line, stating, "I have absolutely no intention of seeking a second term." However, regarding the trials concerning the Daejangdong project and remittances to North Korea, which were suspended due to his inauguration, he ultimately refrained from saying he would "face trial after leaving office." While he views a constitutional amendment for consecutive terms as unrealistic, he gave the impression of still harboring lingering hopes of having the indictment dropped. However, pushing for the withdrawal of indictments, which would undermine the separation of powers, cannot be the natural course of action. The progressive group People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy also criticized the move, stating, "If attempts to erase the trials themselves by mobilizing the Special Prosecutor Act and personnel authority continue, it is not reform but merely preferential treatment disguised as reform."
Moreover, there are formidable forces within the pan-ruling camp who are opposed to the withdrawal of charges or constitutional amendments for consecutive terms. These are the so-called "Moon-Jo-Teol-Rae-Yu" (a derogatory term referring to Moon Jae-in, Cho Kuk, Kim Ou-joon, Chung Cheong-rae, and Rhyu Si-min). In this regard, Professor Chin Jung-kwon of Dongyang University hit the nail on the head. He stated, "(They) may support or tolerate Lee Jae-myung performing the duties of the presidency as an individual, but they will not sit idly by if he uses the office for his own personal gain and ends up squandering the Democratic Party, which is their capital."
Regardless of the cause, it is undesirable for an elected president to lose momentum in governing due to plummeting approval ratings. It is also an unfortunate situation for the people. The responsibility to overcome this lies with the President. Just then, Justice Minister nominee Kim, who was under scrutiny as the figure likely to take the lead in withdrawing the indictment, has stepped down. Now is the time for the Blue House to drastically change its direction of state affairs. I hope that abandoning the withdrawal of indictments serves as the first step toward restoring public trust and achieving results in addressing the people's livelihoods.
[email protected] None Reporter