It’s Not Just a Matter of Making a Living... ‘4 Major Variables’ to Shake Up U.S. Midterm Elections

[Financial News New York = Correspondent Lee Byeong-cheol]With the United States midterm elections just 50 days away, it is highly likely that a "divided Congress" will emerge, where the Democratic Party reclaims the House of Representatives while the Republican Party retains the Senate. Analysts suggest that it will be difficult for the Republican Party to hold onto the House, as the structural trend of ruling parties struggling in past midterm elections is compounded by high inflation, the burden of living costs, and the defection of President Donald Trump's support base.
Jang Sung-kwan, an advisor to the D&A U.S. Strategy Office, said at a meeting held in New York on the 14th (local time), "It is a foregone conclusion that the Democratic Party will reclaim the majority in the House," adding, "The key now is how many seats will lead to becoming the majority party in the House." Advisor Jang served as a delegate to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2024, deputy chief of political affairs for the Tammy Murphy Senate campaign, and deputy executive director of the Korean American Grassroots Conference (KAGC).

The first reason Advisor Jang views the Democratic Party's chances of reclaiming the House as high is the history of midterm elections. Since 1934, the ruling party to which the president belongs has increased its House seats in midterm elections only three times: under Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and the George Walker Bush administration in 2002. Each instance involved specific circumstances: the Great Depression, the backlash from Clinton's impeachment, and the national rally following the 9/11 attacks. Advisor Jang explained, "Unless something extremely exceptional happens in U.S. history, it is a historical and structural pattern that it is difficult for the ruling party to maintain majority status."
The primary issue that will determine this election is the "issue of making a living." This implies that the tangible economy, which voters perceive through gas stations, supermarkets, and monthly bills, is more important than economic growth rates, stock prices, or government bond yields. Advisor Jang emphasized that while "the number one priority in every election that moves votes is undoubtedly the economy," it is "not economic indicators, but the tangible economy." Gasoline, diesel, food, and housing costs are prime examples. This is why "affordability" has emerged as a key keyword in the election.
The second factor is the 'Trump midterm assessment.' Analysis suggests that there are signs of a defection among supporters who led Donald Trump to victory in 2024, including young men, Hispanic men, and those in agricultural Midwest regions. In particular, it is believed that if Donald Trump frames the midterm elections as a vote of confidence in himself, it could backfire among independents, unlike the rallying of his core support base.
The third issue is artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers. As concerns grow regarding power and water usage and rising electricity rates, the construction of data centers has emerged as a new point of contention in local elections. Not only the Democratic Party but also some pro-Trump Republican candidates are taking a reserved stance on data center construction, mindful of local public sentiment.
The fourth issue is Israel. Within the Democratic Party, opposition to providing arms support to Israel is growing, particularly among the younger and progressive segments. Even within the Republican Party, skepticism regarding foreign military aid, driven by the "America First" policy, is emerging, leading to changes in the traditional pro-Israel political landscape.

Advisor Jang assessed that the Democratic Party has a high probability of reclaiming the House based on a comprehensive analysis of these trends. However, he placed more weight on the possibility of the majority party changing hands by a relatively small margin rather than a landslide victory for the Democrats.
The Senate is different. With many of the 35 seats up for election this year being Republican strongholds, it will not be easy for the Democratic Party to reclaim the majority. Advisor Jang predicted that even the most optimistic scenario for the Democratic Party would result in a 50-50 split.
If the Democratic Party retakes the House, checks on the Trump administration are expected to intensify. According to Advisor Jang, the Democrats are expected to prioritize livelihood policies aimed at lowering the cost of living early in their term, and subsequently strengthen congressional oversight of the administration's authority, such as investigations into President Donald Trump and his aides and tariffs. However, if the Democrats control the House and the Republicans control the Senate, political deadlock in Washington could worsen. "If the House falls to the Democrats as well, Congress will become even more deadlocked, and the relationship between Congress and the administration will become more unproductive," Advisor Jang stated.




[email protected] Correspondent Lee Byeong-cheol Reporter